Archive for August, 2006

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How YouTube.com will Make Money

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

YouTube.com is one of the most popular, and my favorite, video site on the web. But there is a lot of buzz as to how it is going to make profits.  Everything else a website needs, users and participation of users, YouTube has plenty of.  So the question becomes… how are they going to leverage those users? (out side of the Google AdSense ads, and promotions from various TV/Movie Studios)

Many that got burned in the internet bubble will fail to see the potential because it is sooo unconventional. But do not get caught up in the negativity.

YouTube is nothing more than a facilitator of content, and commercials are nothing more than content. 

The public initially saw this commercial content w/the very hyped up Paris Hilton adoption of her own YouTube page.  YouTube most likely charges every time someone clicks on one of the videos generated by ParisHilton screen name.   

The one thing that struck me as odd a few days ago was that a video titled as “Starbuck’s Ad” was one of the top viewed videos.  The content was okay, but that is when it hit me.  Commercial content creators are nothing more than normal users.  However, the creators of those commercials have to make it interesting enough to get the views.

By intergrating directing into the platform, normal users will not know what is what.  For instance, I don’t care if something is a commercial, if it has a lot of views I will want to see what others deem so interesting, and view it. So if a Starbucks Ad gets 25,000 view, that could potentially bring in $$ for YouTube.  This is where Ad executives can make a shit load of money, and take advantage.  YouTube is going to force Commercial Content Creators to have very interesting commercials, not the general bullshit we see on TV.  So for all you creative thinkers out there… be prepared.

On the down side, is also allows companies to simply create commercials themselves. For instance I noticed a P.Diddy video that was pushing ProActive.  Why would P. Diddy push ProActive on YouTube… because ProActive paid him to do it! The real question in this case is… Is YouTube getting a piece of the action?  Will they regulate and monitor things like this? If so, then they can protect their user base by not getting flooded w/company created commercials not paying YouTube.

Do I think this model can make a shit load of money… I don’t know.  That depend on how much YouTube charges per view, and how much they protect themselves. (But i’m sure companies will be more than happy to participate.) 

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BlackBerry Connect and Treo 650

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

Great news for the Treo. Albeit the 650 is about to be replace with a new model, so sales should not really spike due to this deal. (Although they might. Americans like the 650 design, while Europeans like the new design… So I would not be surprised if PALM keeps the 650 on the market longer than anticipated due to this deal, along side the new model.) RIMM will see the benefit as potentially current Treo owners will add to their subs.

This exposes PALM to the enterprise space. This also strengthens the relationship between PALM and RIMM. If/When the new phones coming out will get BB Connet then sales in the enterprise will really kick in, IMO.

Great news for PALM. (We just need the new Cingular phones coming out later this year to have this adoption too.)

link

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What is Wrong w/ Chavez?

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

Why would he support Syria, Iran and anyother nation (with a deep rooted hate toward the US) in the middle east? (article)

The answer is obvious I know, but why does he think these contries want his support?  The man is a communist, and these very countries he is supporting were essencially occupied by the Russians.  Does anyone think they trust Commis more then Americans?

I guess its the theory, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Well if the shit ever hit the fan w/the power of the states, the Islamic Extremists that have a power grip on these countries will push Chavez down quicker than a 20 dollar hooker in Atlantic City :)

The man has got to wake up.  We are living in a Socialist society.  The only countries that are not pure socialist are the States and maybe the UK.  What more does the fucker want… oh I know PURE POWER. (like every other leader… using obsoleted ideologies to get his way.)

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Talk about a F***k Up :)

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

“The conversation between Kyra Phillips and another woman was clearly heard as Mr Bush talked in New Orleans to mark the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. ” (article)

Now whose fault is it? the engineer, producer or the lady w/the mic.

Whatever the situation was… its good press for CNN.

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Say Whaaaaaaat?

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006

I’m not one that likes Bush much, especially when he make speeches and times when he has to think on his toes… he is just not good at it.  Now I will gladly question or bash Bush because I, as an American, have that right.  He is my leader, and since i’m held hostage to his policies… it is the least americans can do. 

BUT WHY THE HELL IS CANADA GETTING INVOLVED. Especially a Canadian university w/ about 7,000 students?!? (article)

Call me crazy, but don’t they need permission to use his picture… for whatever reason?  

Those crazy Canadians.  Do they not realize who their largest trading partners are. I wonder who is studiper, Bush or these marketers… to piss off the strongest and largest economy in the world, to which Canada depends on… hmmm… i wonder. (Something is tilting toward the University… not too bright.)

Now I know a bunch of people in Canada, and I am a fan of certain cities in Canada… but this is a big ‘no-no’.

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Obscure Search Tip

Monday, August 28th, 2006

If you want to search companies or products (for whatever reason), and the traditional web searches do not give you the info ur looking for (or not enough info), try ‘myweb.yahoo.com’. (Search ‘My Web’)

I find the My Web search produces more of the obscure blogs and hard to find stories that may get buried in traditional search engines.

The My Web search results are a bit more sloppy, but it serves a purpose to the obsure.

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Is there a Web 2.0 bubble?

Friday, August 25th, 2006

IMO, no.

Anything outside of market forces, imo, can not have a bubble, or should not be called a ‘bubble’.  I know a lot of smart people in the tech industry are crying “bubble” due to the Sony’s pay out for Grouper (ie article, battellemedia) but the invisable hand disagrees.

Let me explain.  The invisable hand (one of Adam Smith’s key points to capitalism, imo) will create order w/in capitalism.  This is what is happening w/the Web 2.0 valuation.  Bubbles exist in true market driven forces because mob mentality sometimes gets the best of market (near-term) movements.  While markets have proven themselves to be efficient, on a long-term basis, psycology (among other things) does not allow it to be effecient on a short-term basis (IMO).

The Web 2.0 (and I would group all LOBs in this ‘bubble’ talk) can not be bubble driven because the dynamic of the way the buying works does not allow itself to get caught up w/ psychological forces.  Don’t get me wrong, markets are seen at every level of buying/selling. But the relavence of psychology toward buying and selling decreases as few people are involved.  And the few people involved w/web 2.0 and LBOs are very smart people who would not allow such forces to overtake them. (The stupidity of mob mentality is supressed.)

The reason Web 2.0 companies are selling for these prices is because larger media companies realized the fuckup they made by passing up on companies like Yahoo, Google and other internet superstars.  Why didn’t TWX buy Yahoo during its startup phase? If they paid $1B when it was barely making money, TWX would look like geniuses today.  This is what media companies are doing now w/web2.0 companies… especially w/ video sights. (And rightfully so.  The potential there is big, and it is being realized.)  The longer the media companies wait, the more expensive these companies will be.  Although some see little revenue, and no profit today, the companies will make money in the future… once video ads catch up to the services a company like YouTube provides.

(LBOs are a different story, but similar concept.  More players are in the field so more of a market mentality is involved.  But instead of viewing an overpriced LBO as overpriced, the players look at it like this… instead of making x amount, we will only may x-1.  Either way we make a net of Y… which is a shit load of money.  A major reason for their overpriced purchases is that there is a lot of liquidity in the current economic enviornment. And the players can afford to pay more for the reduced margin payout, so long as they make a shit load of money in the outcome.)

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China… tisk tisk…

Friday, August 25th, 2006

“A Beijing court decided there was insufficient evidence to convict Zhao Yan of illegally providing foreigners with state information… No details have been given of his alleged crime, but Mr Zhao is thought to have been detained in connection with a New York Times report about plans by ex-President Jiang Zemin to retire from his top military post.” (article)

The man’s crime was to leak a story about a person leaving a gov. position.  So he gets 5 years in jail. What an f-n shame.

Moments like these are what people must focus on to appreciate the differences and benefits a free society.  Stories like this one are what make me worry about China, not so much as a threat to the USA, but to the global economy as a whole.

This tells me the Chinese gov. does not have its priorities in check.  The lack of focus can make them do stupid things w/their economy, which in turn can cause a nice big hick up in the work economy. (ie… part two of the Asian Economic Crisis)

What I want to pay attention to is if instances like these are being reduced, or if they are increasing.  (I only know that free speech in China still has a long way to go seeing how Yahoo bloggers were but in Jail over the past 12 months… but how many of these events we do not know about?)

Things like this chip away at the spirit of a country, and a demoralized country does not maximize it economic potential, imo. (this would be an interesting study to conduct… how the mode of a nation effects its economy… i’m betting there is a corrilation.)

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More Competition in the Smartphone Space

Thursday, August 24th, 2006

RIMM wants to truly market to the prosumer niche, and here is there device… the Pearl. (scroll down once in the link)

I’m not to impressed w/the phone, but that is for the consumer to decide. The mini Keyboard w/SureType is not as good as RIMM proclaims it to be. (I know my gf was very annoyed at it, and returned her older BB for that very reason.) IMO, RIMM will need to do more to attract the prosumer, especially since they are about to allow their software to be on the Treo. If RIMM wants to truly compete in the prosumer space they should buy the dominate leader… PALM.

(But I do not think PALM will sell itself yet, especially at these prices. The stock is worth at least 21 on a DCF basis, and 28-30 on a ‘break-up’ value. And a consolidation of the space should merit even more of a premium potentially pushing the stock price to the low/mid 30s.)

This quarter will be an interesting one. It will answer the questions to competition, and whether or not a high end market for smartphones still exists. (I’m betting that competition is not getting the best of PALM right now. Also the the quality of smartphone is what people pay for… and people like quality.

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France better commit!

Thursday, August 24th, 2006

If they don’t commit to troops in Lebanon, then they are jokers and truly irrelavent.

“French President Jacques Chirac will announce on Wednesday evening what decision France has taken about boosting its initial contribution of 200 fresh troops.” (article)

For all their peace talk when the US gets involved in conflict they leave the world in suspence when they have an opportunity to shine. This is their moment to prove their militarily relevant… i suggest they take it.

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