understanding the psychology of behavior

As I was flippen through the channels I happen to see TWX on the screen via Mad Money, so i tuned in (as I’m a fan of TWX right now) to see what was to be said.

To my amazement I’m hearing Cramer say for TWX to sell all its assets, but cable?!? WHAT! I’m sorry, but Cramer is flat out wrong here… WRONG. I’m in the process of writing a piece for the blog about IPTV, Cable and VoD via internet and what avenue should be taken toward distribution… and which will dominate. Well right now, imo, VoD via internet (ie YouTube, Video Google…etc) are what will dominate by the time IPTV gets fully established. The most important aspect of these three competing distribution channels is the DEFLATIONARY pressure VoD via internet will cause. (more on this later)

While right now cable, and the triple play it offers, is a great growth story, it is short sighted to think NOW is the time to stick with only cable. (Now is the time to slowly unload it, before the pricing pressure sets in.) After all cable is only a distribution means, with few competitors in the space. BUT with the addition of the Telcoms to be building there IPTV network (this is why CSCO is so good lately and why he recommended CSCO today), the telcoms will be offering triple play. All of the sudden, instead of the oligarchy of cable companies that organized amongst themselves, now have to deal with the oligarchy of telcoms. This will bread TRUE competition toward data transmission. (FINALLY this country will see it.) This creates DEFLATIONARY pressures toward pricing amongst the cable companies. (The telcoms are going to have to do something to compete with the already existing customer base cable already owes.) And if you think IPTV is still far from being built, VZ is already building it… so are the others. (but at&t’s IPTV network will not be as good as Verizon’s)

Pricing pressure is not far away. Not only the IPTV competition, but from Video over the internet. VoD via the web is IPTV and cable’s biggest threat. As the internet takes more eyes away from traditional TV, networks will not pay as much for distribution of there shows as advertisers will not pay as much for the ad space. Hence causing DEFLATIONARY pressures.

So now cable has deflationary pressure from a macro level via IPTV; and both cable and IPTV will see deflationary pressure on a micro level from VoD via internet. As such, the take away here is ‘whatever attract the eyes’ is what is king. And what attracts the eyes is CONTENT, hence it is KING. And TWX’s properties via Warner Studios and HBO is some of the greatest content.

note: Anyone who says the studios are a losing proposition is wrong. The movie studio has lifted Diseny from its lull and now w/the trend that studios will not be paying their producers as much. (ie Tom Cruise did not get fired because he is crazy, the studio wants to rework all their contract to increase margins… this will be an organized effort by the studios.) As such increasing margins and profits.

Interesting detail weekly numbers… time will tell. (see link from Hitwise)

Last year, the government changed the rules so DSL subscribers would no longer have to pay into the Universal Service Fund (USF). BUT, Verizon figures if you are already paying the charge, why make you stop. (that is what I think their real thought process is…) here is their reasoning, at least their PC version:

“It’s a supplier fee we have to pay to the Verizon LEC,” Verizon spokesperson Bobbi Henson told Light Reading.

So what does this mean? Verizon (the parent company) created a separate company called Verizon LEC (don’t really know when it was created, but if it was created w/in the past 2 years… something really smells like fish). Basically parent is paying the LEC.

People should be aware Verizon and Verizon LEC are considered legally separate, but are one and the same. These type of tricks are used all the time… just look at the insurance industry and the financial manuvering that is done w/shell entities. OH, and lets not forget Enron and their use of “paper only” companies that caused their earnings to inflate.

Now if I were an investigator I would love to know where that surcharge goes after it passes through Verizon LEC. (Something tells me Verizon LEC amazingly enough pays Verizon -the parent- the exact fee amount as a license to use the name Verizon.)

So it will all go to Verizon, the parent, SOB company

-don’t even get me started as to why all the telcos have kept this country w/a 2nd rate transmission transfer rate.

(I’m sure not a surprise to anyone, but ‘they’ annoy me… especially CNN money as of late, w/their commentaries. I read blogs for commentaries. Commentary does not belong in real news networks.)

The markets are down… it must be the housing numbers out today. NO! But what the headlines are not focused on is that Iran will talk, and oil inventories are good. (High gas inventories suggests an ease at the pump is coming, putting more pressure on inflation.  The slow down in the housing market is NOT a story.  If everyone knows it, and knows it is going to happen, then it is not news.  If anything the housing slow down is more of a story to combat inflation than anything else.  Why isn’t the media talking about that? The lower sales and lower purchase cost reduces the inflation pressure.

The markets are down because the markets became overbought last week and they were due for a correction.  There may be a few days left of it (w/an up day in between).  The techincals show (at least for the Naz) it is well above the SMAs, and overbought so a consolidation is in order.

IMO, now (and by the end of the week) is a good time to slowly start to get into the names you wanted to before the run up.  (i.e. AMLN, FDX, GS, MDRX, PALM…etc) There maybe some more of a correction, but not much… that is w/the exception of Oil.  I still believe crude is going to 67-69.

“The idea is that you can share ideas, and the community can track your success. Better stock pickers get more attention.” 

Interesting idea… the sites just need the users. This kinda fustrates me a little, simply because I had this idea years ago.  I even thought of a way users can make money via a shared revenue sheme.  I never followed through with it because I thought the real value in such a concept would come from a legitimate investing house (aka the Hedge Fund I plan on creating) using the very site to share analysis amongst fund traders and employees).  Make most of the info public, and allow anyone to contribute to the analysis.

The selling point would be two fold… 1) a pay off from the public version of the site via advertising… dependent on the amount of content the individual user produces. This also serves as a means to have accurate User information. 2) Access to Hedge Fund info. 

Since i’m not yet in the position to start a fund… yet… i put this project on the back burner.

here is the link… it also contains a few sites on it.  I have not had the chance to check them out yet, but if i join one, i’ll declare it on here.

the 700wx is to be released soon. (thanks stockoperator_1999)

If my previous PALM post logic holds up, that would mean 3 phones will be released by the end of Sept/early Oct to make the holiday season. (link to the PALM tag for pervious PALM posts)

interesting to say the least. if i’m wrong about the new Cingular Treo, then we still have a confirmed 2 phone release very soon. (Sprint and Vodaphone)

GOOG loses a percent in search share. Now what does this mean… mostlikely a topping of the search market. Or a least the summer lulls are in effect. The other search (Ask, Yahoo and AOL companies gained by .03 each (expect MSFT, which held steady). Although an increase in AOL is like an increase in GOOG, just not worth as much to GOOG.

I’m interested to see where the trend goes for the overall search market, as well as GOOG. However, once wireless broadband over the cell networks becomes cheaper, this imo, will boost Search once again… assuming this is the start of a ceiling in traditional text search. (I’m also curious to see the number of YouTube.com’s search queries. Because i use YouTube.com to search videos as i think it has a much better video search function than Video Google. I also use Truveo.com, but they were bought out by AOL months back.)

Just sold some puts on PALM. If PALM keeps consolidating to the SMAs then i plan on buying some call options.

Reuters stated PALM will release their EU Vodafone phone next month on 9/12/06. Who knows, the phone may come out before then. But the article brings up a good point. PALM needs to get out their new phones by Sept/early Oct. inorder to make the holiday season. This would mean their new Cingular phone must be coming out soon too.

They recently downgraded MDRX. Now I hate UBS due to the way they have covered DNDN. (DNDN is probably one of theeee most promising small cap biotechs on the market, yet being heavily discounted because its on the verge of getting a ‘cancer vaccine’ approved… cancer vaccines are looked down upon on wall street for whatever reason, probably too many failures in the space.)

So, they now place a reduce on MDRX due to pricing concerns from competition. Can’t really argue with that point, i actually unloaded all my MDRX shares anticipating a correction due to technical days ago… but man do i love their fundamentals. (Read their last quarterly report and you will understand.)

The EMR (electronic medical records) and ePrescription space is hot, and will continue to stay hot. The gov. want HeathcareIT to be implimented, and they are pushing for it. Big vendors (ie GE and Siemens) are involved here, but MDRX and other companies have the lead and continue to expand rapidly. (The lead is key here as many doctors will not waste time re-learning a new software once already implimented. And the fact that MDRX has won awards toward their application’s ‘ease of use’ is a leg up as well.)

No doubt a consolidation was needed in MDRX, and I can thank UBS for quickening the process. (But i still hate them for the way they handle DNDN.) I’ll be looking the load up on MDRX again when the chart tell me to.

(keep in mind i am not a brute… i just thought this info was interesting so i posted it… and since 85% of women have this so call ‘problem’, i thought some of those 85% would be interested.)

“scientists at an Austrian lingerie manufacturer have hit upon an easier way to burn off the unsightly fatty deposits all day long: tights impregnated with microcapsules of caffeine…

“Palmers, a 92-year-old company based in Wiener Neudorf, spent several months developing and testing the Slim Fit 20 pantyhose. As with other brands of tights that contain skin products such as aloe vera, red algae, or seaweed, the caffeine-laced fabric is activated by body heat. The small drops of liquid, which last for four washes, boost metabolism and burn fat.

“Caffeine rubbed on the skin, like caffeine-laced anticellulite creams, would absolutely work to improve the appearance of cellulite,” says dermatologist and La Jolla Spa medical director Mitchel Goldman, who conducted a study using caffeine-laced anticellulite cream. Of the 34 women in the study, 25 noticed a decrease in thigh circumference.”

the link to the article. (since CNN money does not keep their links up for a longer period of time, here is the link to the distributor of the product… Tightsplease.com)