echotoall.com Blog

1. MEG-4 compression tech is gaining traction, and should continue. SIGM is the best play here, hence its great move over the past few weeks. SIGM maybe a good investmet on a pull back. Also, IMO, they may be bought by BRCM (unless BRCM has a version in there pipeline, and threaten a relative price war to get into the MEG-4 STB game. BRCM does have HDTV chips.). (article)

And to add to the IPTV support, here is a consensus that states IPTV is a top priority in 2007. (article) This is also why BRCM is one of my few semis i’ll go after for the next few months… they are in the right spaces.

2. Here is proof GE made a terrible mistake purchasing IDX. Customers are not happy with the product, especially the NHS in the UK. (ouch) This bodes well for a top rated, customer friendly EMR product that Allscripts (MDRX) offers. Just adds to the investment case for MDRX. (article)

ps… on a valuation note for MDRX: it is currently where it should be unless estimates get revised upward. Also as per the above info, it may deserve a premium, but i’m waiting for a pull back.

3. CEO of PALM is down playing, and imo, underestimating the iPhone. (article) If this is true, I am bothered by it. PALM’s management has really let down investors. They could of sold the company months ago at a premium, but decided to be selfish and ride the stock to pathetically low levels. While Ed (the CEO) keeps over promising and under delivering, he does bring up a good point… Apple will leverage their retail outlets to sell the phone (most likely a phone that will be and unlocked EV-DO have WiFi capability). Apple usually always have their products ready, and seeing the success of the ‘Chocolate’ phone, Apple’s phone will be a success. (Ed’s mistake is thinking Apple is a PC company… they are not, Apple is a conusmer centered electronics designer and a real software developer.)

DNDN just announced a 9.9M stock offering for about $45M. (about 4.55 per share)

Management has pulled this before, and I was annoyed then, and am extremely annoyed now. With all the string of good news, hell, even TheStreet.com was turning positive on us, we get a bullshit placement at less than fair enterprise value. (as thestreet.com article suggests… i agree w/it)

The reason I smile… I sold my trading shares for a nice profit a few days ago at 5.34.

The reason I cry… Other than the above, I do not know why they are doing it.

Gold (CEO) has continuously stated that they have enough funding to see Provenge through the FDA decision. But here are my theories…

1. He is being prudent. The data is rocky and may not get approval, but an approvable letter. (Better to get a deal done at 4.50 then 2.50… because if it gets an approvable letter that is where it is going.)

2. To start up trails on Neuvenge again.

3. To be in a better financial position when negotiating w/a Partner for ‘rest of world’ rights to maximize returns.

The list can continue, but it is pure speculation.

Make no mistake, I am annoyed at the offering. Today’s action completely messes up our trend, but if 4.70 holds the upward move is still intact.

This also saved a lot of shorts… i mean a lot of them. Gold gave them the best opportunity to cover w/out fucking their position too much.

In a Forbes commentary, David Ewalt pretty much says because RIMM lost, PALM should roll over and play dead. That is just BULLSHIT.

NTP’s position is the way RF communicator to the mobile processor reads and delivers e-mail.

I am troubled with this because PALM’s design was not based on an e-mail system, like RIMM. Nor was the Treo designed to be e-mail specific. The Treo was a cellphone w/an organizer. That is it. (Treo history)

What NTP is basically saying is that the way the Treo handles e-mail belongs to them. But the Treo was/is simply a cell phone that can, currently, handle high speed wireless networks, due to the network creation. Is NTP claiming that they have a right to royalties to all cell phones accessing data networks? If this is the case, are they going to go after all the high speed network handset makers? Why/how does this technology belong to them? Qualcomm produced CDMA technology… will NTP ultimately say, ‘well , the way the data is converted from the network through the handset belongs to NTP.’

PALM needs to hold its ground for the sake of the industry. If they don’t no wireless provider will be safe. But then again, this is why they were considered invalid, and why RIMM settled for so little. Technology changed, and the way data is converted and gets handled is different. RIMM settled because they utilized the same concept of an enclosed system pushing e-mail, as Thomas Campana created, NOT THE WAY THE DATA WAS BEING CONVERTED in the hardware. PALM’s hardware is a collection of devices, ALREADY PATENTED BY THE COMPANIES THAT SELL THEM, in order to utilize current the wireless web… not specific to push e-mail, as RIMM.

The only thing that makes PALM special, then anyother phone on the market, is their Patented Treo Design (the shell of the phone), operating software (nothing to do w/e-mail pushing) and high quality of the product.

There is a reason why NTP did not go after MOT. (Nokia has an agreement w/NTP, but that is because they offer a push email closed system like RIMM.) NTP is ultimately seeking a royalty from every cell phone that can handle e-mail, and that is absolutely INVALID!

As i’m watching Mad Money he is pumping RIMM. I find myself shocked… i mean truly shocked as to what he is saying about RIMM.

He is not mentioning the Option Expense issue. (they are probably the only company that is not discounted because of it, doesn’t he have a rule about accounting issues and buying a stock?)

He is not saying that their hardware sales were nothing special last quarter.

He is not saying MSFT exchange platform w/their mobile software is a real threat to their software growth.

He is not saying how the Pearl is truly a crappy phone, and will experience A LOT of returns from the ‘Prosumer’ market. (I know this as fact… my sister purchased the Pearl, and there was a reason why she got it for $50, w/contract. The phone is horrible, many software bugs, camera/picture quality is crap and it is not that easy to navigate. The only positive is that Pearl mouse is unique. Except the mouse causes most of the problems. If you don’t believe me call ur local T-mobile store or call Blackberry, tell them you are having problem with your Pearl… that calls not being received, when in your pocket or bag, and call waiting not working causing dropped calls. See what they have to say.)

Bottom line, RIMM is a good company because of their software. The software is what caused their quarter to be a good one, but they themselves admitted to a slower software revenue looking forward, and a greater focus on hardware. And right now, their hardware is NOT, by any means, special.

In fact as the new smartphones come out, the quality of the Treo seem soooo much better. The Treo is the best smartphone out there… by FAR. (And I am not speaking as a PALM sharehold, but as a consumer.)