Think Sub-Prime
A recent break of the chart pattern occurred (toward the upside) in NFI, and is making me think Sub-Prime lenders.
Looking at the chart, NFI did not break with conviction, but non-the-less the pattern is changing. If the Fed starts raising rates, NFI should go down. If the Feds drop or hold rates, NFI should rise. If NFI doesn’t shoot up, they pay a 18.4% dividend. I have been following NFI for some years now thinking the high dividend was a red flag onto itself, with the theory being ‘how could a subprime lender issue such amounts in the current environment?’. But they have yet to not give that dividend, so i’m assuming it is the real deal.
If your DD suggests NFI is too risky, then take a look at CCRT. One of the best (if not the best analysts in the financial sector), Tom Brown really likes CCRT. Here is his view. Also, when you look at the CCRT chart it looks like it is about to break out. The chart is linked here.
IMO, the best way to play this is… put x amount into this sector, buy 50% in CCRT and 50% in NFI (primarily for the dividend and recent breakout). I still view this sector risky, but the charts are saying now maybe a good time to nibble a bit here.
(yes, i wrote nibble)