understanding the psychology of behavior

and the saga continues with his recent blog post. (article)

So he is now saying Google is evil because Google does not protect copy right material from being posted. Oh did I forget Youtube is following the law by placing their disclaimer, and that the responsability of content protection falls on the content owner. SO, in the name of the LAW and the LITTLE GUY, Youtube/Google is NOT BEING EVIL. He is just assuming the content owner’s laziness toward protection is somehow Google’s way of being evil.

When Google/Youtube develops licensing agreements with the major content owners, which will mostlikely include imbeded ads, the protection of the content owner by Youtube become essencial, along with the ability to prevent others from financial gain from other content. When ads begin to be imbeded into content provided by the content owner, the act of protecting the content becomes incentivized for Youtube to prevent others from uploading that very content. But until then, the burden is still on the content owners.

Terms will be worked out. The question is when, NOT if.

Also, lets not forget the essence of what Youtube is. An online community of USER generated content.  There are a lot of original user generated content on Youtube, and those users can benefit from the ads.  If traditional media was SO SMART, what they SHOULD is study what becomes top viewed clips, partner with Youtube, and provide such material to Youtube with imbeded ads. (But i’m sure that is too complicated for them to handle.)

If a dumbass blogger can figure it out, why can’t the almightly arrogant media executives? (and Mark Cuban

As far as his #3, and series of ’search’ questions… i tend to agree. If I want to search the web for some video, I first go to Youtube. If it is not there, as per a user upload, I use Truveo.com (now a part of AOL). It is, IMO, a far better true video search engine searching various sites.

Just an update on FMD, as its negativity continues.

It is currently sitting on support, but negativity remains. Here is a chart…

Current support may hold, but the chart is not in the favor of the longs. The support at 43 maybe seen, but I still believe it is too obvious to be achieved.

Investors can do one of two things in the short-term:

1. sell if the current support breaks.

2. stay long, and get a second position at 42-43.

If you believe in the FMD story, option 2 is the play. If you are a short-term trader playing the technicals, option 1 is the play.

ignorant… they turn out to be really stupid, but hey… for you investors of VIA… at least they are making an effort, right?

So VIA signed a content deal w/Joost.  What is Joost? A start up (not yet started) w/ZERO… let me repeat… ZERO audience.

So what does Viacom’s management have to say about this… “Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman told the WSJ that this partnership was evidence that the company is more than willing to work with online distributors who protect their copyright.” (article)

So Viacom is willing to work with a company with NO audience base, hence get a great deal. BUT the deal could mean NOTHING to investors because Joost is an unproven entity with NO AUDIENCE.

I love Viacom’s content, I really do. Some of my favorite shows are South Park, Daily Show and Colbert Report. (The Chaple Show was a favorite too, but VIA management fucked that up too.) And I want to see them and the company do well, but managment is crazy if they think entering an unproven entity w/zero audience is entering the online space.

These guys just do not get it.  Please someone pass this along to network executives…”YOU HAVE TO BRING YOUR CONTENT TO YOUR absent VIEWERS, THEY WILL NO LONGER COME TO YOU.”

NYNY (Empire Resorts) controls the rights to have a casino in upstate New York. Gov. Spitzer just approved the plan.

My girlfriend’s father told me about the stock over brunch on Sunday, and when I saw the chart, it looked consolidated and a nice entry around 10. 

I was going to get some shares this morning, but last night I read about the Gov’s approval of the plan.  The stock is now up about 21% in pre-market. (rightfully so… and congrats to my gf’s father)

The stock is still not without hurdles.  A re-zoning of land has to occur along with Federal approval of the plan, so DO NOT just jump into the stock.

The reason I like it is because of Spitzer’s tone.  He appears passionate about getting the casino up there, and the area needs it… badly.

One of two things can happen:

1. the stock will run up from here, anticipating full approval and the value of the stock will reflect it.  (This would mean to buy some shares now, and let it ride… then you will be playing ’sell the news’ later.)

2. after the pop, the stock will run, ultimately consoilidate, and achieve a new trading range. (This will allow you to be patient, and enter later.)

SO… if you got the spare cash, buying 1/3 now is not a bad idea… in case scenario #1 happens.

FYI… i don’t own any shares now, and the stock is still risky. I will most likely wait for #2 to pan out, but will keep you posted if that changes.

Since Viacom has been in the lime-light, forcing Google to take down their content from Youtube, I thought it interesting to compare VIA performance against other content providers.

For a One year performance, VIA has been lagging. (The point of the chart is to show VIA under performing against everyone.)

Just a hunch, but the reason for their lag could be because VIA is the only content provider with out a clear web presence. (Or at least does not have the content synergies to create a sizeable web presence.)

NWS has Myspace, TWX has AOL so they have the most to gain with out the help of Youtube or Google. However they both don’t leverage their assests properly.

DIS and CBS are the closest to VIA in its ability to distribute content through the net. Every web avenue is provided to DIS, CBS and VIA yet DIS and CBS are out performing. This could be due to overall better content, which is probably true, but VIA obviously has a high favorable audience on Youtube due to their content’s popularity on the site. Yet instead of leveraging it, they do nothing with it. NOTHING, but force it off.

If I were a shareholder in VIA, I would be pissed at Redstone’s inability to recognize this. So much revenue potential, yet they do nothing… so they make nothing from where their audience is now located.

Just got finished watching Rome, and was flipping through the channels when I saw a cheesey show. The ‘Half Hour News Hour’ on Fox News Channel (FNC). I guess FNC is experimenting with a comedy 1/2 hour news. Of course it only targets librals and neutal topics (or at least the first 5-10minutes of the show). But for the love of me, I could not keep watching. IT WAS SO BAD. LAUGHABLE BAD.

Not only is it bad, it now confuses the audience. Is Fox News Channel a 24hr news channel or has it become a 23 and a half news hour w/ a half hour of attempted comedy?

I guess FNC management never got the memo… stick w/what you know, tilted news. (Fuck, even their saturday morning business Stock Market shows have increased their political chatter, attempting to consitently tie in a political tilt to what will happen in the market. Making for horrible stock recommendations. I can barely watch them anymore.)

The reason why ‘The Daily News’ works is because it makes fun of everyone. They have no loyalty to a political party, they don’t give a fuck. And they do some fucked up, funny shit. The reason why Colbet Report is funny is because he makes fun of Fox and the overly conservative audience. The satire is funny. Oh, one more thing, the two shows are on the COMEDY Central. I repeat Comedy Central, a channel designed for COMEDY, not a 24hr news channel.

IMO, this gives a tremendous validation to the Daily Show and Colbert Report, and their audience.

Found this article, and thought it exemplifies YouTube. (article)

As far as a biz model goes, I hope Google allows users/content providers to participate in an ad scheme. 

What I think it should look like:

For user generated clips, and any video under 10minutes, there should be a 2sec banner Ad before and after the video clip. (A low margin type of Ad, but not intrusive by any means.)

For studio generated clips, or any video longer than 10minutes, the option for a 15sec commercial type Ad should be available. (This type of Ad would command more of a premium when viewed.)

Of course content providers must have the option of having the Ads within the videos.

Imagine a ‘nobody’ produces a video, and is able to make a living off this.  With over a million page views, on some popular videos, this is very very possible. And would most definitely assist Google’s bottom line.

Not boasting or anything , just pointing out the facts… previously I pointed out FDX and AXP. (A case where I saw the opportunity, but not enough capital to go around , so I informed the few of you who visit me a heads up.

FDX was pointed out around 111. (see post). Now, it is at around 117. (A properly placed options play would have served you very nicely.)

APX was pointed out around high 57. (see post) Now, it is around high 58. (Along with it came a scare of the breakdown I warn about, but Bernake save me… good old Ben

There is also DRIV (see post), but I already pointed that out… along with others… CTXS, FMD (about a month ago) and COF. (see post)

Anyway, enough of the self kudos. (I just like to keep track, so I created this summary post.)

PS… i didn’t forget about the losers… loser I posted on here:

The QQQQ short. (see post) Ouch

Going through my stocks and noticed a few good ones that merit some attention.

1. FMD

2. MDRX

FMD came down some, for no real reason I can figure out. The stock is not an analyst favorite, but it looks pretty attractive here… fundamentally and techincally. Now is a good time to get in… 49-50.

MDRX came down due to an in line earnings report. But baking in the last quarter results, and new analyst expectations, the stock looks fairly inexpensive. Also, keeping in mind, EMR is growing nicely and has a way to go, and Allscripts is in the best position to benefit. Between 26-27.50 is a good time, pending your level of risk tolerance, i would wait for low 26.

here are static charts so i can keep a record as to when i recommended it:

Today’s action in NYX is why I was calling for protection. Yesterday, the 90 March 07 Puts were around 4.90. Today they reached about 6.10. (That is some nice protection.)

Anyway. I would be closing some of that protection about now. Here is a weekly and daily chart:

Weekly - It is settled on its first line of support. Low 80 or even the 50SMA maybe seen. (But that could be too obvious, so I doubt it.)

Daily - the support are similar to the weekly. Around 80 or high 70s due to the 200 SMA.