understanding the psychology of behavior

Iran is obviously a market threat, and will continue to be until their attitude changes. (The crazier they act the more of a risk premium is factored into the price of crude, hence threating global economic growth.)

But Iran is stupid, and here is why.

Iran does not really need any other western country.  All they really need is Russia and China. Russia and China have the resouces to help Iran do whatever it is Iran needs to do. So Iran thinks it can act the way it does.

In the past China and Russia tolerated Iran’s attitude because it was all talk. China needs Iran’s Oil for growth, and will pay up for it. Russia in turn has the ability to greatly facilitate Iran’s infrastructure, and has the know-how to help Iran spend the money they get from China.

China and Russia (R-C) need Iran. Everyone wants economic growth to continue. Iran’s action are acting like a speed bumd to economic growth, and China and Russia can not afford to lose what Iran can give them.

In other words, R-C can not afford the US (and other allies) to over take Iran. R-C has too much at stake in Iran, and they know this. This is why R-C attitude toward Iran has become harsher in recent months. If push comes to shove R-C will, and this recent escalation with hostages turns for the worst, Russia and China will be the first to enter Iran, so THEY can secure assets and business contract they need. (And the Western countries also know this.)

Iran is stupid because they are not fighting the Western Ideology… they are fighting global economic growth. No matter what your ideoligy is, that fight is an already lost war.

I will not forgive Cramer for his bashing of DNDN until he puts a POSTIT on his forehead, and tells his audience he was wrong on DNDN.

Cramer, GIVE YOURSELF THE POST IT! Your uneducated, misguided representation of DNDN was wrong 150%. That to me deserves a public declaration of a mistake… and his POSTIT policy.

Until then, he is a… (use ur imagination imagination to fill in) of a tool to the (use ur imagination to fill in).

The more and more I think about it, the more and more I believe DNDN should not be trading below 15 today.

I have stated 8 as very very low conservative number, only because I know the shorts  (that were manipulating the stock) will not give up without fighting to cover at something lower. But the more I think about the vote and positives surrounding this company, the stock should in the 20s. (I say 15 because 2 firms already came out w/a 20 price target, so that pretty much capped us today.)

The FDA will approve.

And the reason I say manipulated is because that is what it is.  Case in point. UBS today reiterated a down grade, and a traget price of 3.  They also stated the FDA will issue an Approvable Letter.  CAN YOU BELIEVE THESE TOOLS?!?!

The vote was too much in favor toward Provenge, and the more I see it decline the more I want to buy it. (And I think I will get my chance.)

Too many people did not do their HW, still, on this story.  And they are overlooking its potential.

I bought my first position in ICE this morning. Will buy more if it goes lower, but I like it here for an initial position. It is too cheap, in relation to the other exchanges, and sitting on support.

Yesterday was probably my least most productive day at work as my eyes were glued to the investorvillage DNDN MB for a play by play on the Commitee meeting.  And today I am just so happy I can not concentrate.

DNDN has so much more upside potential than 27 because of its technology, and once analysts recognize this, the stock can easily hit 50.

Their Technology can potentially act as a platform for multiple type of cancers so long as the properly targeted antigen is used.  Nuevenge (their breast cancer treatment, which the Phase 2 study had to be put on hold due to financial constraints) is evidence of this.

Today is a great day.  There is so much more upside it is rediculous.  I say DNDN goes to 50 w/Provenge and ROW alone by the end of the year. And when you factor in a premium for it potential, I would argue 60-70.

But I would especially like to see Neuvenge return to the clinical trials, as my mom is a breast cancer survivor (currently in remission), and I want her to have this option if she should need it in the future.

Provenge…

Unanimously safe! And a 13-4 vote toward a substantial evidence of efficacy!

The first hurdle was accomplished, and DNDN should be heading to at the very least 8-10. But now that most uncertainty is removed from it actually being approved, it can potentially go higher. The commitee vote also opens the door for a ROW partnership. Now big pharma will not be scared to pursue Provenge. And with a ROW partner, DNDN can go far greater than 30.

I still believe it will be approved by the FDA w/a concurrent phase 4 study (9902B).

To the shorts I say FUCK YOU. You manipulating scum deserve what you get. (I can only hope the funds short this stock got caught w/their pants down.)

And to Cramer for completely bashing the DNDN story about a year ago, and getting the story completely wrong, and not even retracting his false statement I say FUCK YOU TOO! (to be clear he did retract some of his statement, but got the RECTRACTION WRONG too!)

CONTRATS DNDN, and all longs… and I truly am grateful that the PC patients out there have a new safe alternative to treat them, and maintain a relatively high quality of life. (GOOD LUCK, and my Prays out the the PC patients.)

–My hat is off to David Miller. While he did express concern a few months ago, he was courageous enough to take a position to consistently tell it like it is. Your word is worth more than its weight in gold.–

There has been so much positive press about the iPhone ever since it was announced, hearing the ‘not so bullish’ side is somewhat refreshing. John Dvorak posted such an article. Stating the razor thin margins and quick shelf life of a design pose a big challenge to Apple, even if the phone is initially successful. I agree with everything he stated, as it is true about the cell phone industry, and the different environment Apple is about to enter.

The Cell phone space is that of a plethora of ‘me too’ phones, and multiple ’smart’ (and potentially benefitial) functions that most people do not use. (In my opinion people do not use the smart functions because they do not know how to, or the functions do not integrate w/ other types of services they use.)

Apple changed the name of the game. Even without the phone being released, we witnessed its capability and its potential, and everyone had to wipe the drool from their awe struck mouths. (I include myself as one of those wiping. ) The reason the iPhone is different and revolutionary, is the fact that Apple is not selling a phone… it is selling a stuning multi-functional device that promises its users a glimpse into the future.

The iPhone is a key component to a true IMS functioning world, at least Apple’s vision of it. (If your wondering what IMS is, here is a good summary.) Apple is doing what Microsoft wants to do. Apple is in the position to benefit the most from this IMS centric world we are about to embark on.

We have not yet seen a true IMS world, even though the telecoms may say they have given it to use already. Even if it arrived, people have yet to take advantage partly because the wireless transmission speeds were not fast enough, but mostly because systems do not easily talk to each other at the consumer level (at least for the layman). But I have a strange feeling Apple will show us all what we are missing… and we will love it, and love Apple even more in the process.

1. PTR looks like it is breaking out. 121 maybe seen in the short-term. (chart) June 2007 115 calls maybe the play.

2. ICE is starting to look really interesting on a valuation basis. They put themselves in their current discounted position by entering the CBOT bid. Once they exit the attempt their price should start to rise again, along w/a potential bid from NYX or NDAQ. (chart) 120 is a good initial entry, the second at 110, and the 3rd would be at 90 (but I doubt 90 would be seen).

I still believe in the fundamental story here. I will still be actively trading AAPL and its options, but for now, I see some stress to the upside.

The daily and weekly chart tells me it around 97 should be seen, but with a consolidating markets (for the very short-term) I do not think it will happen.

AAPL may see 92-93 before 97. If it does I may re-enter there or once I am comfortable with its consolidation in relation to the market’s consolidation.

Long-term story, and fundies, are still in tact.  So Hold if your a fundies guy/girl.  (I just wanted to capture the gain.)

PDVSA will be issuing a $5Billion bond scheme. The goal will be to raise funds and take money out of circulation. This in it of itself is interesting.

Also, do the poor/middle class in Venezuela have enough liquid cash to accomplish this? Or Will this be directed soley on to the rich? And what if foreigners were to buy up the bonds?

I do not see any rich or foreigners buying up these things, especially since only a few minutes after this bond story broke the BBC announced MORE land seizures in Venezuela!

IMO, this is a prelude to a $5billion dollar theft by Chavez. (Even if you like the man due to his ‘questionable actions’, how in the world will you trust him with your money when he as essentially stolen so much already?)