Iran is being Stupid
Iran is obviously a market threat, and will continue to be until their attitude changes. (The crazier they act the more of a risk premium is factored into the price of crude, hence threating global economic growth.)
But Iran is stupid, and here is why.
Iran does not really need any other western country. All they really need is Russia and China. Russia and China have the resouces to help Iran do whatever it is Iran needs to do. So Iran thinks it can act the way it does.
In the past China and Russia tolerated Iran’s attitude because it was all talk. China needs Iran’s Oil for growth, and will pay up for it. Russia in turn has the ability to greatly facilitate Iran’s infrastructure, and has the know-how to help Iran spend the money they get from China.
China and Russia (R-C) need Iran. Everyone wants economic growth to continue. Iran’s action are acting like a speed bumd to economic growth, and China and Russia can not afford to lose what Iran can give them.
In other words, R-C can not afford the US (and other allies) to over take Iran. R-C has too much at stake in Iran, and they know this. This is why R-C attitude toward Iran has become harsher in recent months. If push comes to shove R-C will, and this recent escalation with hostages turns for the worst, Russia and China will be the first to enter Iran, so THEY can secure assets and business contract they need. (And the Western countries also know this.)
Iran is stupid because they are not fighting the Western Ideology… they are fighting global economic growth. No matter what your ideoligy is, that fight is an already lost war.
