understanding the psychology of behavior

Man-oh-man… in one word… nice.

36% growth in Macs! (This was the one catalyst I was looking for that would support the stock… what a f-n catalyst.)

Good show AAPL, good show.

Sold GOOG this morning.  I still feel very strongly that it is fundamentally sound and undervalued. (I think it should be trading at 525, at the very least.) 

But, I wanted to play PMTI for its earnings and I can not leverage myself too much. (Do not want a forced margin call on my DNDN shares because of its tight restictions.)

Also, ATI reported some good stuff regarding titantium.  Still a lot of demand there, and TIE should also be benefitting.  TIE should be reporting soon, but they do not pre-anounce a date.  I may have to roll the May Calls over to June.  (Earnings should be coming out either in late May/early June, and provide a push to the stock.)

DRIV - reports on Thursday. Chart looks like it is ready to burst, but it is still being contained. It is truly a dependent on the report. If it is good, it pops, and if it pops it looks like it will pop big. (And vice versa)

PMTI - reports on Thursday. Chart looks relatively weak and negative, but looks undervalued. It has declined so much over the past few months the report should give it a pop.

SLB - Looks like a potential bounce to 76-77. This is a purely short-term technical move, along with a fundamentally strong sector.

If you placed a trade w/GD when I indicated, don’t get greedy. It is up nicely since then, and if you timed the trade correct on Monday you should be up some 35%.  Don’t be greedy. Take some or all your profit.

Just an FYI.

If the recent Fool article is correct, giving the reason to the NYX Sell rating by GS, then the reason is not a good one. (I do not care how well they know the company.)

GS also gave a buy to NDAQ thinking the ‘Regulation NMS’ will hurt NYX’s market share. Now, is this something we already did not know?  NYX has been losing market share for some time now to the Naz and BATS exchange, why will this make it any different?  Market forces drive competition, and NYX is already feeling a loss in market share because the other exchanges are already beating it.  I mean the traders are going to the other exchanges for a reason, they are not going to wait for the SEC to tell them to go. (Which, IMO, is easily correctable if NYX decides to do something about it.)

Also, a quick review of valuation speaks for itself…

NDAQ has a PEG of 1.70

NYX has a PEG of 1.55

Keeping in mind NYX is already growing quite nicely in the US market despite the continued leak in market share.  But they also merged with an exchange that is increasing its market share in Europe, and growing like gangbusters in all areas of the exchange.

Do not get me wrong, NYX must compete with the other exchanges to stop the rate to which it is losing market share in the US. But the stricked SEC rules are also to blame for the US being weaker in general.

I just do not see the logic in selling a cheaper stock whose company has global prospects, for a more expensive stock whose company has limited prospects.

The action is annoying me.  Its chart looks fine, and appears to want to go to the 20SMA or 470.  But after such a quarter I was expecting a move to 490-500 before such a consolidation.

The markets were due for a consolidation so I was expecting some weakness, and this is what may be causing GOOG’s weakness also.  But I find myself contemplating a switch from GOOG into GS. 

I should buy GS on its own, while holding GOOG, but I can not leverage myself too much while I am holding DNDN pre-approval.

Whatever the case, I will probably buy some GS upon its consolidation.

In a UBS research note today concerning DNDN, UBS stated…

>>All “serious medical oncologists” do not believe the efficacy data as presented are robust enough to allow FDA to approve Provenge.<<

Excuse me as I laugh my ass off at UBS and their comment… LOL… hold on, I am still laughing…

OK… Now that I am composed let me explain why it is the funniest thing I heard all day. 

By stating ’serious’ before the term oncologist, UBS, an investment house has the AUDACITY to say any oncologist who believes in Provenge is not a serious doctor.  AN INVESTMENT HOUSE IS NOW EVALUATING ONCOLOGIST.  Am I the only one thinking WTF?!?

Now I am having a hard time deciding whether or not I am laughing at the comment, or at UBS itself for allowing such a comment. Actually, I think it is both.

Excuse me as I wipe the tear from my eye… now that was funny.  UBS, thanks for the laugh.

The downgrade came from none other then the NYX (assumed) bestfriend, GS.  This makes me questions things.  GS is far too reputable, and has played a very close roll in NYX’s public debut, to just issue a sell prior to earnings with out some real justification. (GS knows NYX better them anyone.)

Will the EuroNext merger provide the juice/growth the entity needs to push upward?  Right now GS is saying no.

Technically NYX looks weak, but I do not see it being that pricey just yet considering the prospect.

In my opinion, this downgrade does merit some caution. I would not sell, but I would let the dust settle before adding. (I would not be surprised to see 75 again.)

Fundamentally it is still a good company/stock.  Sold it due to its approach of the 50SMA. Thought the SMA would act as resistance, especially seeing NYX actions.  Will look to repurchase.

Everyone (myself included) talks about Google’s potential in Video, Mobile, Video Games and Offline advertisements because this is where the potentially obvious next trick pony will come from. As I am catching up with my readings, I came across this blog post from Hitwise, “What are 18-24 year Olds Doing Online?“. This is what caught my eye…

“18-24 year-olds make up 19% of the adult online population, and based upon their website preferences, are much more interested in creating and sharing content than the average online user.”

The 18-24 year olds are a key demographic because they generally spend a lot of money, and are highly targeted by advertisers. Now that we know what a lot of them are doing, the question becomes, ‘how do we target/monetize them?

The obvious is to have banner ads where they generate the content. While this is good, it is not efficient and does not maximize monetization.

Then I remembered the PPA model Google is testing. What I really found interesting, and that could potentially truly take advantage of all this User generated text content would be the ‘text link ad’ format.

Wouldn’t it be interesting if PPA ad links were able to be placed on key areas from User generated text that was specific to the topic of conversations? (But a very minimal amount, nothing too crazy.) Now that is a new pony I would like to see Google push, outside of being used by bloggers or general publishers.