echotoall.com Blog

“Every man dies, not every man really lives.”
-William Wallace, Brave Heart

Through my readings of various blogs and message boards, and even CNBC, has stated today’s news from the FDA was ‘good’ news.  I guess it can be viewed as ‘good’ when the FDA’s previous uncertain remarks become certain. This result was expected, and it was one of the first assumptions management gave during their conference call earlier in the month. If the interim data on survival is positive (as described in the SPA – Special Protocol Assessment), the FDA most approve the drug.  However, the interim data will not be ready until 2008 (probably the 2nd half). 

In my opinion, the only reason it is positive is because the FDA gave certainty to the situation.  I am hard pressed calling today’s development positive as I still strongly believe the FDA short changed the company (and Prostate Cancer patients) by not giving it Conditional approval from the data already in hand.  The fact that there is now certainty gives DNDN the ability to partner with a big boy, and have some kind of leverage.  I hope management does partner, but over the three years I have been following this company the one thing I recognize is Gold’s stubborness. This makes me have uncertainty as to whether or not DNDN will partner. 

If Gold and management decides to ‘go at it alone’, they will need to do a secondary, and the stock can most certainly see the 4-6 dollar range again, as we await the data.  If management decides to partner DNDN can very well see 15.  The cash infusion, and more importantly, the validation from a Big Boy (and their FDA lobbying abilities) will give tremendous confidence to the street about Provenge.  (In other words, DNDN needs to partner.) Today’s development is a fire-fly’s light in a very dark abyss for the sole fact a partner can arise. If they partner, that light will get brighter and larger.

The most expected course of action was taken by the FDA.  Still a bit ambiguous as it leaves the FDA with the decision to disregard the interim results.  I say this because the FDA already disregarded an obvious positive review from the Advisory Commitee, so they can also most certainly disregard positive interim data.

If DNDN learned anything from the strong arm tactics from the corruption within the FDA, they will partner with a high powered big boy now.  They can still go at it alone, but that will require a secondary, and if they do plan on going alone, the secondary should come very soon.  But observing the corruption of the FDA they will need a partner to get Provenge through and to market by 2008.

The stock is currently trading at its true value (between 8-10).  When a partner is announced DNDN could go to 15.  But if a secondary is announced, and DNDN tries to go at it alone, the stock could very well see 4-6 again.

(The reason I use the word CORRUPTION… the minority voices of the FDA with OBVIOUS conflicts of interest were able to sway the FDA decision against the FDA’s own findings within the Briefing Documents and overwhelming majority opinion of an Advisory Commitee.  I define this as CORRUPT!)

Throught out the pass few days I have seen article after article about dismissing AppleTV as a viable product.  The premise of these negative articles had some vindication the other day when Jobs himself said at “D” AppleTV was more of a hobby.

I disagree with the bashing of AppleTV, and I think Jobs is doing what any leader would do (and what he is greatly known for)… downplaying the importance.

Apple is a great company, and its most valuable assests are the Ideas the company is able to generate and its understanding of the digital age consumer.  With the creation of iTunes, and the understanding that most people want to own professional content, iTunes is a hugely successful means of content distribution.

With millions of people owning their own content, ranging from (currently mostly) music to movies, this effectively makes their computers a personalized data base.  The laymans out there need a product like AppleTV to take full advantage of theire presonalized data base, especially on the video side of things. 

Now the above argument is not new, it has been mentioned many times before by other bloggers.  What is new now is that AppleTV users will be able to watch YouTube on their TV.  (This was always rumored to be the case, but now it is confirmed.)  The fact that YouTube is on here is great, and benefits both Apple and Google.  

What I find most interesting about this feature is the fact that AppleTV has opened its platform to a video site.  There is nothing stopping Apple from doing a similar deal with other sites like Joost and others that offer quality content from traditional media or maybe even the media companies themselves.  If Apple can pull this off cable distributors should be worried.  This is when AppleTV will be a product for the masses that are truly fustrated with their bloated all-in-one cable bill. 

Of course old media stupidity may stand in the way.  If I were a content creator I would make distribution deals with whoever I can, but old media does not work that way. At least not yet.

NYX appears to be taking a bit of a hit in the pre hours trading.  From what I gather, it is probably due to Citi becoming an investor in BATS.

I took advantage, still stand by my trade thesis made last night, so I bought some stock in Pre Hours.  I did not buy options because I am waiting on the GDP number.  A bad GDP number may be an excuse to bring the market down, so I am being conservative by buying the stock rather than the options.

Saw this during the day but did not have the time to post it, nor act on it. (Too busy running around today… day job getting in the way again.) Also I was not expecting such a strong end of day for the markets.
Daily:

Weekly:

The daily is consolidated, as well as the weekly. Looks like a move to 88 is in the cards very short-term. If playing the short-term look to play the Sept 85 Calls. (This gives you good upside, and protection in case the trade is wrong, and July 23rth earnings report is needed as a catalyst.)

Or buy shares. A longer-term view indicates a move to 95 should be seen.

A lot of names look good now, at least for a short-term move. The markets (in general) have some more upside to them, barring a negative catalyst.

Here are a few stocks I follow, and am waiting for my target price to buy…

BNI - With a lot of high profile long-term investors getting into the rail space, the little guys should not ignore the space either. The recent runs were due to momentum players biding up the stock because of the big boys coming in. A decline to the 50SMA would be a good entry point, at a decent PE for BNI, and not too far away from where the big boys entered.

ICE – Anyone that has been reading this blog knows I love ICE and sold it with tears in my eyes . A pull back to around 131-132 maybe seen. I think ICE will get boughtout or merge (I hope with NYX), but it is too small to stay independent and too valuable to other exchanges that want to get into this space. ICE executes flawlessly despite its size.

NUE – One of the best steel stocks in the world, the stock looks interesting here. But the recent Goldman downgrade of the industry gave me pause from entering it the other day. It looks interesting here, but I was waiting for the lower right sloping trend line to be reached before entering.

BRCM – Many talking heads are saying to stay away from tech focus stocks until after the summer, so there is negativity in the space. Once negativity ends, and the herd says it is ‘okay’ to buy these names, BRCM should benefit. A move to between 29 to 27.50 may happen. Bottom fishers should wait for 27.50, but if you really like BRCM an initial entry could be made at 29.

AXP – I love the credit card processing biz model, and the credit card companies in general. AXP is the best of both worlds. It is a bit toppy here, and am waiting for a pull back. I wrote about supply of credit card processing companies coming online soon, but I do not think AXP will be affected as much as MA, as AXP is not a pure play in the processing aspect of the biz and it is not as pricey as MA. Around 62 maybe a good entry point.

GS – I already entered GS at 225, and will do so again at 220 (probably Calls at 220). I do not know what more to say about GS. The guys there know what they are doing better than anyone else. (except when they downgraded NYX )

Hope one of the names entices you to do further DD, and make money on the name. Have a great Memorial Day weekend.