understanding the psychology of behavior

“Every man dies, not every man really lives.”
-William Wallace, Brave Heart

Through my readings of various blogs and message boards, and even CNBC, has stated today’s news from the FDA was ‘good’ news.  I guess it can be viewed as ‘good’ when the FDA’s previous uncertain remarks become certain. This result was expected, and it was one of the first assumptions management gave during their conference call earlier in the month. If the interim data on survival is positive (as described in the SPA - Special Protocol Assessment), the FDA most approve the drug.  However, the interim data will not be ready until 2008 (probably the 2nd half). 

In my opinion, the only reason it is positive is because the FDA gave certainty to the situation.  I am hard pressed calling today’s development positive as I still strongly believe the FDA short changed the company (and Prostate Cancer patients) by not giving it Conditional approval from the data already in hand.  The fact that there is now certainty gives DNDN the ability to partner with a big boy, and have some kind of leverage.  I hope management does partner, but over the three years I have been following this company the one thing I recognize is Gold’s stubborness. This makes me have uncertainty as to whether or not DNDN will partner. 

If Gold and management decides to ‘go at it alone’, they will need to do a secondary, and the stock can most certainly see the 4-6 dollar range again, as we await the data.  If management decides to partner DNDN can very well see 15.  The cash infusion, and more importantly, the validation from a Big Boy (and their FDA lobbying abilities) will give tremendous confidence to the street about Provenge.  (In other words, DNDN needs to partner.) Today’s development is a fire-fly’s light in a very dark abyss for the sole fact a partner can arise. If they partner, that light will get brighter and larger.

A VC group backed by Goldman and Novartis VC arm has hired lobbiest Goodwin Procter to lobby for FDA reform.

Very curious as to what they will lobby for, most likely self interest.  This deserves more research.  Curious as to what the Novartis VC arm is heavily into, and what reform they desire. But off the top of my head, they are probably going to petition for different standards when the FDA is dealing with different diseases. (Currently, this is one of the key issues troubling the FDA.)

The most expected course of action was taken by the FDA.  Still a bit ambiguous as it leaves the FDA with the decision to disregard the interim results.  I say this because the FDA already disregarded an obvious positive review from the Advisory Commitee, so they can also most certainly disregard positive interim data.

If DNDN learned anything from the strong arm tactics from the corruption within the FDA, they will partner with a high powered big boy now.  They can still go at it alone, but that will require a secondary, and if they do plan on going alone, the secondary should come very soon.  But observing the corruption of the FDA they will need a partner to get Provenge through and to market by 2008.

The stock is currently trading at its true value (between 8-10).  When a partner is announced DNDN could go to 15.  But if a secondary is announced, and DNDN tries to go at it alone, the stock could very well see 4-6 again.

(The reason I use the word CORRUPTION… the minority voices of the FDA with OBVIOUS conflicts of interest were able to sway the FDA decision against the FDA’s own findings within the Briefing Documents and overwhelming majority opinion of an Advisory Commitee.  I define this as CORRUPT!)

Throught out the pass few days I have seen article after article about dismissing AppleTV as a viable product.  The premise of these negative articles had some vindication the other day when Jobs himself said at “D” AppleTV was more of a hobby.

I disagree with the bashing of AppleTV, and I think Jobs is doing what any leader would do (and what he is greatly known for)… downplaying the importance.

Apple is a great company, and its most valuable assests are the Ideas the company is able to generate and its understanding of the digital age consumer.  With the creation of iTunes, and the understanding that most people want to own professional content, iTunes is a hugely successful means of content distribution.

With millions of people owning their own content, ranging from (currently mostly) music to movies, this effectively makes their computers a personalized data base.  The laymans out there need a product like AppleTV to take full advantage of theire presonalized data base, especially on the video side of things. 

Now the above argument is not new, it has been mentioned many times before by other bloggers.  What is new now is that AppleTV users will be able to watch YouTube on their TV.  (This was always rumored to be the case, but now it is confirmed.)  The fact that YouTube is on here is great, and benefits both Apple and Google.  

What I find most interesting about this feature is the fact that AppleTV has opened its platform to a video site.  There is nothing stopping Apple from doing a similar deal with other sites like Joost and others that offer quality content from traditional media or maybe even the media companies themselves.  If Apple can pull this off cable distributors should be worried.  This is when AppleTV will be a product for the masses that are truly fustrated with their bloated all-in-one cable bill. 

Of course old media stupidity may stand in the way.  If I were a content creator I would make distribution deals with whoever I can, but old media does not work that way. At least not yet.

NYX appears to be taking a bit of a hit in the pre hours trading.  From what I gather, it is probably due to Citi becoming an investor in BATS.

I took advantage, still stand by my trade thesis made last night, so I bought some stock in Pre Hours.  I did not buy options because I am waiting on the GDP number.  A bad GDP number may be an excuse to bring the market down, so I am being conservative by buying the stock rather than the options.

Saw this during the day but did not have the time to post it, nor act on it. (Too busy running around today… day job getting in the way again.) Also I was not expecting such a strong end of day for the markets.
Daily:

Weekly:

The daily is consolidated, as well as the weekly. Looks like a move to 88 is in the cards very short-term. If playing the short-term look to play the Sept 85 Calls. (This gives you good upside, and protection in case the trade is wrong, and July 23rth earnings report is needed as a catalyst.)

Or buy shares. A longer-term view indicates a move to 95 should be seen.

A lot of names look good now, at least for a short-term move. The markets (in general) have some more upside to them, barring a negative catalyst.

Well, here is more concrete proof that Dr. (scumb bag… etc) Howard Scher had a very big public interest in seeing Provenge fail. He will be involved with Phase 3 studies of ASCENT-2 for a Prostate Cancer treatment called Asentar. (article)

So basically he bashed the hell out of Provenge while he was setting up for a Phase 3 trial of a competing PC treatment.

PC Groups, please file a Civil lawsuit against this MoFo. I mean there is only so much blatant corruption people can take, and this is affecting a persons right to live.

Observing the big boy players involved makes me realize exactly who put pressure on whom, and how this thing unfolded. Horrible, simply horrible. The more powerful lobby own. DNDN had the science behind them, but not a strong enough lobby.

I am sick to my stomatch.

Must be some major tears… ouch. (article)

I am sure many were hoping for the China news to bring down the equity markets here too, but that was only in the AM.

The story appears to be really good right now… we are truly in (at the very least) a hold situation. And barring some catalyst, the markets may trend up this summer thanks to the shorts.

(I am not expecting some major rallies, but enough to sustain and move upward.)

China markets sold off because of the increase tax requirement from capital gains.  It went from 0.1 to 0.3 percent. This was done to cool down some market speculation.  It worked last time for a bit, but the markets still went up irrespective after a few months.  Same will happen now.

Keep in mind, the west found out about this increase around noon yesterday (while their markets were closed), and our markets did not sell off.  Any reasonable investor would have been thinking about a sell off in China the following morning… which obviously happened.  The Shanghai Index was down 6.5% on the news.

If our markets experience a breakdown due to this, buy the names you always wanted to buy.  It is a bullshit reason for our markets to be down.  A sell off in other markets would be a pure psychological sell off, nothing more.