Talk about calling it. If you did buy protection via the Aug SPY puts, I would look to cover them now. (This was the pop downward I was expecting to see, do not know how long it will last.)
I am looking toward the very short-term. Still think August will be weak in general, but I will not be able to trade after the evening of Aug 2nd.
I am noticing a weakness. Upon the next (hopefully there is another) market push upward, look toward market potection. I would be looking at the 148 or 149 Aug SPY.
Just a heads up. The markets are still oversold, but I noticed action in the tap that made me question how much the markets will bounce off of this oversold condition.
(I will post a more detailed chart of the market later.)
I consitently see Cramer talk or write about how he would rather have a guy with Street smarts verse Book smarts. Yet I rarely see guys with street smarts in these major firms.
As an outsider all I see are these guys/girls with awe-inspiring educational backgrounds. I do not want to take away the importance of an education, as I have one. But from my experience trying to get into Wall Street from a different industry, they do not care about how well you can trade or see trends or your ’street’ smarts because you will not be trading your first year… you will be someone’s bitch. So they do not care about street smarts, or so I have always been unfortunate enough to never have met a person like that.
Anyway, that is me venting. (I got turned down from a Hedge Fund position a few years back, and the arrogance of the manager with a Harvard Education left a bad taste in my mouth. No skin off my back though, I am a far better trader now than a few years ago, heck everyday I trade on my own I get better and better.)
Knowing you can make money is a great feeling, and when you see it realized it is an even greater one. (ps… i was and am knocking on a lot of wood after stating that comment 
)
Despite my use of PEG to value this company, I also look at it in practicle terms. For instance, the NASDAQ has a PEG of 1.58 and the CME has a PEG of 1.84. So if the NYX ultimately wants to be a true global exchange combining equities and derivatives (which it kind of is w/the derivative arm of Euronext) why is it trading at a PEG of 1.14?
The NDAQ may deserve a premium due to its ability to gain market share in the US and the level of it efficiency, and CME gets a premium due to its position in derivatives. But why are all the positives ignored from NYX to give it such a low valuation when the company it is becoming is like a combination of NDAQ and CME?
NYX does not need to buy NMX now, nor will it as NMX is going after its own acquisitions for the time being. NYX needs to prove itself to the street, and no better of a time to do that than on Aug 2nd.
If NYX can not pull off good earnings then it is a 2008 story, but until that is seen I still believe it is a 2007 and beyond story.
I always keep an eye of the Euro, and since I will be in Europe soon I figure I post what I see. And what I see fustrates me more than the sudden personality shift of my ex.
Here is what I see:
I see a potential downward move to either 134.5 or 136. I wish this would happen, as it would make me a happier man. But then I look at the GLD chart, and it looks to be holding support at current levels, and may bounce due to Gold being oversold.
So while I hope the dollar rallies while I am in Europe and sees 134-135 against the Euro, it probably will not happen. So I will be left fustrated paying for a 40% premium for things… but at least I will not be paying for a ring anytime soon.
The OSX caught my eye today. It appears to be consolidating.
The DMI has been losing its luster, and today the index broke from the 20SMA support (that has been holding for the last 5 months). Some of the names in the OSX appear to be valued pretty well, but observing the chart of Crude the valuations maybe merited.
Crude is very much in a bullish trend:
Although crude is at a high (and I am typically weary of buying oil related stocks toward mid/late August due to seasonality weakness), bullishness appears to be holding.
The above would suggest an initial entry to the Oil Services may be merited. A Oil Services ETF is the PXJ, but if EFTs are not your thing and like stocks, SLB is the best play here. But I would wait for a full consolidation in the OSX (266) for an initial entry.
If seasonality comes to play, and a real correction is seen over the next few weeks in oil, then a doubling down should occur during the correction.
I found the OSX chart interesting, and if you wanted to get into the sector, the opportunity maybe here.
Bought some August calls the other day (unfortunately before the unexpected major drop) but did it for a quick trade, and was able to unload them today for a nice gain.
Have not sold any of my core position that I have doubled down on. Waiting to see if it runs into earnings. Keep you posted.
Before the market breakdown I believed TIE could hit over 39 due to its trading pattern following a strong earnings report. With falling sponge prices and increase production (not at full capacity yet) established in April 2007, and the continued demand for titanium I see TIE beating, and potentially increasing margins.
It has a heavy short interest, with insiders buying fairly consistently for the past few months. With a solid earnings upside, TIE can see a pretty big run upward given the short interest… and unfortunately vice versa.
I am not playing anything on the short-term with TIE so I do not care if they do not beat when they report (although I think they will). They will definately have a better 2nd half due to the increase in production. TIE’s facilities consistently run at 95% capacity, increasing capacity increases earnings. It is a matter of what they were able to squeeze out of their new facilities, as well as costs. So they may not blow away revenue, but earnings should beat.
FYI: now is a good initial entry for TIE.
Mastercard appears oversold, and touching support (but a few points away from the 62 SMA support) within the daily chart:
The weekly chart also indicates a level of support via the 14SMA, that has acted as support before:
MA seems interesting here, at least on the technical front. However, I am still not a big fan of its valuation. A PEG of 1.88 is still a bit rich. Regarding valuation: Yahoo Finance sees about a 16.5% growth for the next five years. I think that is too low. I would use 20%, which brings the PEG to about 1.59. Still a bit rich, but more reasonable. With the use of plastic gaining momentum, this may not be a bad time to make an initial entry.
If you want to be a bottom fisher, than I would wait for around 130 to 140, as there is support around those levels, and valuation would be much more reasonable in relation to the growth for the use of plastic verse cash. (The one thing I really noticed when I was in Iceland a few weeks ago was the tremendous use of credit cards verse cash.)
Seeing how horrible the market is as of late I would not blame anyone for waiting. MA also reports on Wed, and if the numbers do not justify the previous run, MA may take a hit due to its premium valuation.
