understanding the psychology of behavior

BNI:

There appears to be a consolidation here with the 32 SMA potentially holding up. Further downside is possible to the 79 support, especially with a consolidating market. The MACD potentially indicates a pop upward. (If interested in purchasing BNI at the current level, a good idea is to sell the Oct 80 Puts.)

TIE:

TIE, along with the overall market, is over extended. TIE may act somewhat stronger than the market, as today indicated, but TIE did retreat as the market retreated. As such, TIE should follow the market consolidation. There is support around 32, which is also confirmed by the SMAs from the weekly chart.

What a tease of a day! Pretty much all other financials are doing what I expected today, yet GS decides to show some strength… even when the market showed weakness. That is what made me cover this afternoon.

I thought there was an unlikely chance it would collapse toward the end of the day because of the relative strength it showed as the market was subsiding. But that unlikely chance proved to be what actually happened.

GS, ur such a tease! You just couldn’t have shown weakness sooner.

I am not looking to short it anymore, too much emotion involved with it now. I have to wait and get a better assessment of its movement.

(Also, I know Cramer says GS deserves a higher multiple, but it does not. Not when the money is coming from trading, and flipping from their PE arm. And his 300 target is based on really good earnings, not an expanded multiple. I do not subsribe to RealMoney or him so I do not know what the rest of his assessment is.)

TIE may consolidate to high 32/33, along with the market.  There is general bullishness, however, TIE obviously pulled back w/the market pull back. So a further market consolidation may cause TIE to pull back some as well.

I will post the charts later in the day.

I wish I was able to see this live. Instead I have to rely on NYTimes updated blog posts. I would love someone to ask the Iranian Prez, “Does your nation love all nations or just ones Iran recognizes?”

This specifically talking to his final remarks, “We are a peace-loving nation. We love all nations.” 

I like the chart set up. Looking for a potential move to 85-86.

Sucks when I’m busy driving to Boston, and unable to follow the markets in the AM.  GS is not acting as anticipated (for the time being), so I covered.

Here is what I am seeing… a potential move to as high as 211 via the daily and weekly chart, but things are over extended.

daily:

weekly:

The SMAs via the weekly have still not broken potential resistance, but if the ‘potential resistance’ of the daily is broken upward, then the Puts I have will be covered. (But I will take more puts on if 211 is seen, and I notice weakness while observing the intraday moves.)

Technically NYX is moving, and should make a move to 81-82. NYX is hitting two spots of resistance: 1. Within the daily via the dotted line and 2. The 20SMA w/in the weekly, that has acted as resistance before. As such, if the market consolidates next week, NYX may hick up too at current levels.

daily:

weekly:

What has me excited is the break from that negative trend line posted in the daily chart. And the Stoch indicates a move to 80 is very possible near term. I noticed the upward biased a few days ago, and today confirmed it. (See… no emotion here j/k)

As to play the move… hold.  Would not protect to the down side just yet, especially after the potential break out, and am cautious on buying for the short term due to the potential resistance.  This move could be the market catching up to its inefficiency.  The volumes NYX posts next should be good, and continue to facilitate more upside.

They were good, and I am not going to dispute them, but everyone and their mother is talking them up as if they are the holy grail.  They are not.

GS beat due to trading, which the street does not view as quality earnings.  If they did GS would be trading at a much higher PE. 

Trading revenues/earnings are inconsistent and do not deserve a high PE.  Revnue/Earnings from a product w/ real growth momentum behind it is what Wall Street give an expanding multiple to.  Unfortunately the financials do not have this at the moment, not even GS.

(I am not calling GS bad, nor do I have puts on them for any fundamental reason… the puts were bought for purely technical. (I may add to the puts today before I start driving back from Boston.)

As I was leaving my hotel room (still traveling to Boston on the weekdays) I hear a Mad Money commercial which specifically and stupidly stated… “The Fed listens to Cramer, why shouldn’t you.”

Now that is arrogance at its finest.  Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.