Here is Mr Market, and what I think it is telling me…
The daily SP500 chart indicates a move to between 1480-1500 as the first level of real technical resistance. The next level will be around 1510. (1510, IMO, is the big one. And do not think the market will break it.)
The SPY is obviously supporting the above thesis:
The SPY weekly indicates the market is bouncing off the current support SMA, and is about to enter a push to 149 via the 14, 28 and 32 SMA.
Supporting any potential move upward is the VIX. It broke from the SMA that has been acting as support these passed few months. As such a push by the markets to the next resistance mark is likely.
The chart that indicates a down day tomorrow is the SH. It is sitting on this few month long support, after not being able to break its now triple top resistance.
All and all the market has room to run, but obvious fluxuations will occur. Like a potential down move tomorrow, hence my Put today.
Upon a market push to 1490, SPY Feb 149/150 puts can be bought. As it correlates with a few daily resistance marks, and a seemingly strong one via the weekly.
Upon a market push above 1500, the trend states around 1510 (151/152 for the SPY). At 152 for the SPY, the 152 Feb Puts would be a good idea.
For the record:
This bull run is over, it is broken. Things need to rest, reset and then be ready for the next bull run. Right now, the markets are bouncing because of seemingly cheap valuations from a bull market mentality. Once the bear mentality sets in, the majority of the SP500 earnings estimates will come down. (I know I focus a lot on charts, but nothing beats the fundies… do not lose sight of the fundies here.)
Within this bull run, everytime we came off a real corretion (hitting the 320 SMA) there was a very real economic reason that made us run. Today and yesterday the markets did not see any real reason. These bounces were purely technical, which has a lot to do with the current psychology of the market players still thinking the market is in bull mode. This is not a reason that can sustain a solid bull run.
, as they are not publishing any of my posts since. But then again, I have been posting more technical stuff, and despite my accuracy, they are not into that sort of thing. The irony is that I have noticed this Blog getting more hits, and consistent hits since July (as many hits a ‘long-tail’ blog can expect without really advertising, and posting anonymously 
) despite not being published. Which means you guys reading this thing like my technical chatter and are passing it along. For that I say, “Thanks”.
