I entered an initial position in CSCO via the April 25 options. I have been touting the fundamental back drop on the company, and Chambers has consistently said its results will be lumpy, yet the stock got punished due to the last quarter. (search CSCO in the search box to see other posts on it.)
I think the chart says a position is merited here.
The daily is oversold:
The weekly is sitting on support:
If there was one thing I learn this year, without a doubt it would be… risk managment. (Yes, I swear by it now 
)
This was the year I should have been left financially better off with my investment in Dendreon. Instead I was left with a severe distaste with the FDA, and a seriously strong lesson in why risk management matters.
Ever since DNDN, I approach trading with a sense of risk management, and that thought has actually allowed me to be a much better trader. (I believe the last 7-8 months of blogging has shown that.) I obviously still make one sided trades, when the chart calls for it, but those trades are shorter and usually always profitable even though some potential profits are sacrificed. There is no hesitation to alter a trade or take on a hedge when the risk profile changes.
I have no regrets regarding how I handled DNDN. None. It is easy to say ‘would’ve, could’ve, should’ve’, and I never say these words, as I truly hate them. If you fuck up… learn from it, get over it and move on.
I believe it actually helped me in my personal life as well. Flushing out what turned out to be a money centred ex-girl friend. (Although I know how to make money, I can not stand the pretentiousness it creates.)
The Market has been good to me the 2nd half of the year, and I hope others benefited from my blogging. (Without a doubt I had some losing trades, VLO and TIE for the earnings call, to name a few off the top of my head 
)
A toast to 2008, may it bring happiness, in every sense of life… cheers.
Happy Trading.
Started to cover my market short. Still exposed, but took some profits. If we have a down day Monday, or go low enough today, I will enter an NYX option trade.
I do not understand why the Yen is lagging. Granted I am not a currency trader, nor is do I pretend to be one, but when I see the Euro and Franc breaking out, all with similar charts and the Yen lagging, I wonder.
FXF and FXE all breaking from the 20 and 50 SMA nicely, but FXY is lagging behind the move.
The question… will the Yen mimick the break?
I have distribution agreements for the content on this blog, and that is nice as others seem to think what I have to say is some what good. Over the past few months I have noticed articles via traditional media outlets with the same theme of my content, but only the theme was consistent (w/the exception of the seekingalpha articles which is almost direct content from my blog). And I am not arrogant enough to assume I am the only one w/a specific thought, so do not really attribute it to my content.
BUT… as I am searching GS headlines I come across this title “Bad News Bears“.
I specifcally stated this title (here is the post)… and asking why this title questioning was not given yet regarding Bear Stearns! And here it is… via Forbes. (Granted the theme of the article is not for Bear Stearns.)
Coincidence… maybe… maybe. But if any one else needs a cute title, just let me know.
Thought the coincidence was interesting… happy trading.
NYX looks good via a chart perspective. It is about to sit on multiple SMA supports. Looks really juicey, w/the exception of its over bought sentiment.
I have been an NYX Fanboy for some time, and still like it, but caution is needed here none the less. If you already have a position, a double down here is not needed. An initial position can be argued here, but make it 2/3 of what a traditional initial position would be. (Still too cautious on the markets in general, and since NYX is a part of the SP500 it will be taken down too.)
I will take on some NYX 85 March Options, but around 82-85 if it is seen.
Apple TV is looking better and better to be in a position as a major product. Fox and iTunes are in talks to essentially rent Fox media content to iTunes. I just found it stunning that not once is Apple TV mentioned in this article. That product will sneak up to many.
Also nice to see NWS is not confining themselves to just MySpace or HuLu. I am glad to see they are leveraging their content properly via broad internet distribution. I am liking NWS more and more.
How do we find ourselves in this falsely re-assuring market? The markets have been up for 5 straight days, (the best part being that I anticipated this ), but signs of strain are present.
For the second straight day the VIX is up, being oversold, as the market is up. Feels like a Champaign bottle building pressure right before the chork bursts.
The Ten Year yield potentially hitting resistance…
The market at a resistance point via the SMA…
However for the next few days, all this should not matter. The only thing that we have to know is that the recent 5 day move in the market was caused by low volume, giving the false sense of ’sentiment’ change (obviously toward the positive side).
Nothing has changed, the only thing that changed from my prediction of a drift upward in the markets was that the media outlets are giving false meaning behind the move. Do not get sucked it.
Remain cautious. If not ready to go out right bearish on the market, at the very least be PROTECTIVE. Many people are tauting the ‘January Effect’. Take a look how well the ‘Jan. Effect’ worked in 2005.
Swim carefully.
Do the earnings power have a enough strength to breach the resistance at the top?
With earnings estimates in the double digits, analysts are basically saying yes… unfortunately, I think the estimates are ahead of themselves.
Merry Ho Ho Ho Day everyone. Hope the holiday season is going well.
