Markets…
Inflation numbers do not look pretty, yet the market is trending upward. Some view this bullishly, but I still do not. Some may view this as the markets are looking past these negative news, and inflation will go down in a few months, but the commodity prices are just not saying that. A longterm view of the SP500 indicates a real longterm shake out did not occur. As such, I am still leaning on the negative side.
(The VIX does not have to cross the SP, but the trend is fairly obvious. Over the years there has been a change in the dynamic with the VIX, as it has come down significantly. So I do not want to completely ignore a potential change in dynamic that may have suggested a bottom in the market.)
I started shorting again, as indicated in my previous post, and my charts are basically supporting this thesis. There maybe some upward move still to come, so that is why I just started, and plan on averaging up if need be.
The SP500 indicates a potential upside of around 1400-1410.
The VIX is oversold, severely, but can trend the 200SMA until the market becomes really overbought.
Other charts that would support a topiness are the ADRE approaching it negative trend line and Transportation Index approaching the 200sma resistance:
