Market Chart
Overall I do see a potential bullishness allowing the SP500 to see around 1370, however I also see short-term stresses underlining that bullishness… especially within the transports.
On a pure chart analysis via the transports, a break out has occurred. But the move is taking place as the index is overbought, and individual stocks are selling at a premium. So I am very hard pressed to believe it will surpass the 90 resistance.
Also, the IGW appears to be breaking or at least bottoming, but again, the macro picture does not support any sustainable rally. Hence the IGW should, at best, be range bound for a few months.
I already took out short positions yesterday, during the intra-day (noon time) push on the SPY. I will most likely add to that position if the SP500 sees 1360. Because we have the uncertainty regarding the consumer, I am expecting the market to be range bound until the economic picture becomes more certain.
