Market…
The Market appears to be sitting on a support line, while being very oversold. This seems as if the market wants to push upward.
However, the VIX was up the how day today… the entire day. Yet the market was up nicely. This is what really gives me pause.
The one indicator over the years, that has really never failed me, was to see the VIX spike while the market was up. If I ever saw this, I would short the hell out of the market. (Although I did not overly short the market with today’s observation.) The market is usually in overbought territory, and not seemingly about to pop upward.
IMO, I think this set up is good in that the VIX is increasing to properly reflect the uncertainty surrounding the US consumer. This set up is interesting.
In bull markets the SP500 maintains an SMA trend line. Obviously, not the case here… hence the market will be range bound. So, IF the markets rise, I do not expect 1425 to be breached. (Thought 1410 should be tough to break.) If the market declines, I can see 1320-1350. (The chart above suggests a possible ‘trading range’ low could be 1320)
