I overlayed the last 3month with respect to the XLF and NYX. Why is NYX going down… apparently Wall Street really thinks its a Financial Institution.
The quickness of the correlation tell me Wall Street is miss representing NYX. A more round-about explanation could be… weaker financial sector means weaker trading volume? (but there was no correlation like that in the begining of the year.)
We kepted hearing “BULL MARKET, BULL MARKET” from those on CNBC. I mean come on. I am a big fan of Kudlow’s show (over the years he taught me alot about economics), but got tired of his continuous pushing of ‘all is well’ BS.
Pundits pushing the ‘new bull market’ crap, when the data just does not justify it, annoyed the hell out of me. But that is what creates markets.
We are by no means in a bull market, but by no means will we be in a severely declining one either… so long as the global economy keeps pushing. (We know it is doing well because oil is above 130… when oil starts cracking that is when I will worry about the global economy.)
The market is getting a bit over extending on the down side. Still looks to have some room to go, maybe around 5 to 15 points left in a potential decline from the SP500. But, as far as ‘easy money’ in the down move… that was made.
So heads up if you decide to short now. Only a potective position should be taken now. (But then again, that is never a bad idea.)
Also, I started buying back 1/3 of my PWR, as it is now consolidated. If it continues to decline, and gets really oversold, will add more. (Probably double of todays purchase.)
I am pretty surprised that this stock does not show more strength here. Everyday for the last 6 trading days declines.
How quickly the street forgets about their recent quarter.
As for this mornings market share number… it sucks to see, but does it matter anymore? The stock’s value already discounts the American equity business pretty much worthless, so it should not matter. And % of revenue is steadily declining… I believe makes up 12% of Revenue.
What I am curious about is the Alternative Equity Markets and their profitability. Are they profitable or giving their biz away to gain market share, then be bought out or IPO’d? Their models I do not think are sustainable. The IBs that are bank roling them are keeping them in play to keep prices down via the NYX and NDAQ, but their comes a time when this has to end.
I do not want NYX or NDAQ to buy any of the smaller equity players. I want to see the players IPO, then they will be forced to raise their fee to established profitability. Then I am sure NYX and NDAQ will stop lossing so much share from them.
The IBs need an exit from their investment to an unsustainable model. I do not want NYX to be the sucker and buy them. Let a Street fund that buys them via an IPO be the sucker.
NYX is oversold and sitting on support, but may get dragged by a weak market.
The market is sitting on support, but I can see it potentially going lower or consolidating at the current level for a few days.
(FYI… my market short was closed out as the limit order for the remaining trade was achieved the other day.)
1. Added to the NYX trade via the Sept Calls.
2. my limit order on some of my SPY puts were executed.
3. MA still looks good, if by some mircale the stock decides to pull back due to market weakness, I will repurchase the calls.
4. GOOG looks interesting here. If your risk tolerance is high, June/July 570 calls is a good idea.
Took my profits on the MA trade. Wanted low 280s, and I got it. It is still oversold, so if I was playing common or longer-term options I would hold, but because I was playing July options once my target price was achieved, I unloaded.
MA - Oversold and sitting on support.
NYX - Oversold and sitting on support, but may move to the 50SMA w/a consolidating market.
GOOG - Sitting on support, but with the market consolidating I am uneasy playing short-term option calls. (but am waiting to pounce)
Starting to nibble on NYX Sept 65 calls and MA July 280 calls because the two names are very oversold, while in a sentiment of bullishness. However, I still maintain my market short.
Also, GOOG is interestingly holding up well here. The 570 June/July calls look appealing. (After this market correction, GOOG may move to 615 or so.) I am waiting for the market to be oversold before I play GOOG calls.
Strong Sell signal. The VIX is up while the market is up, this have been a theme today in the AM and is continuing now.
Take some protection or ease up on long positions because a lot of bets are being made the the markets will correct.
Add to the fact that the Vix is really really oversold, and the market is really overbought.
Trade carefully.
The SP500 is approaching a very strong resistance level, and it has caused me to increase my protective position. The markets look too bullish, and complacent, given the bad macro economic back drop we are in.
Even if oil declines big, and gasoline follows, at the retail level I do not think it will be seen. (I am under the impression retail gasoline price are already suppressed.) A bunch of good news is priced in.
I will post charts later in the day, but I am in more cash and SPY protection for the positions I have open.
