Archive for December, 2008

Cheers… to a Happy New Year

Wednesday, December 31st, 2008

What an interesting year we just experienced. Hopefully we all come out of 2008 much wiser and better investors/speculators.

The 2008 year ended very nicely for me, while I know it has not for many others. I just hope my thoughts were able to help the few that visit this blog. (My year-over-year performance date is on May 9th and will give it at that time.)

I know its tough to acknowledge the validity of an anonymous blogger, but frankly speaking even if my identity was known, acquired validity would be just as difficult. However, this year has taught us, no matter the background of an individual, putting ‘your money where your mouth is’ is the only validity that can be trusted. The history of a person is just that… history. We are only as good as our next trade.

To those old friends from the JCOM message board, a double cheers to you all ;) .

Cheers… to a happy, healthy and profitable new year.

Trade – UGA

Wednesday, December 31st, 2008

Unloaded the UGA trade. It came off of its very oversold condition and the easy money was made. It may go higher, but I can not ignore a 10% move in basically 3 trading days.

Stocks of Interest

Monday, December 29th, 2008

Some names are looking interesting here with their recent consolidation…

NVDA – has gotten pretty consolidated, but may decline further. NVDA enters asset value play upon the 6.80 area.

nvda

ERII – Like NVDA, ERII is consolidated and approaching a trend line support.  Around 6.85 seems like a good initial entry.

erii

POT – Consolidated and breached its SMA resistance. Most likely forming a bottom here. May see a move to 80 or so before becoming overbought.

pot

Trade – UGA (also, GOOG)

Friday, December 26th, 2008

Entered the UGA trade, and will unload it as it gets off of its really really oversold position.

Also, now maybe a good time to get into GOOG common.  It can still go either way, but it is consolidated, relatively inexpensive and generally speaking a good price to hold the common.  If it sees around 280 I will consider playing call options, and will have more conviction on the upside from the 270-280 level.  (If GOOG goes up from here, it may hit is 85 SMA, and at that level is where I will unload the common.)

Market Thought… Happy Christmas

Wednesday, December 24th, 2008

tree
The Market has been pretty calm over the past couple of trading days, and since I have been far too busy at work (from a new boss that has little idea of the time consuming nature of what I do) I am glad I did not miss much. (I am inches away from quiting and trading full time.)

The calmness comes, imo, as I point out, due to the decline in the Vix. I stated the Vix may ultimately trade at the high teens to mid 30s. Here is the chart that indicates this to me…

vix
Ultimately the unusually low level in the Vix was due to artificial use of leverage, and money creation that we will never see in our lifetime again. The a longer term look at the SP500 chart indicates fairly solid resistance around 950-1000 for the SP500.

spvix

Basically we are looking to channel trading from 800 to potentially 1000 for the SP500 until the fundamental economic picture improves. At the moment, the SP500 has consolidated, but can still go either way…

sp

I say either way because even though the market is consolidated, there is room to consolidate more. More bad economic news maybe on the horizon, and if the charts indicate to me that the negativity is not already discounted within the market, I will post it… as usual.

On a side note… A potential trade developed. Gasoline is very oversold, and an oversold bounce may take place.

gas

A means to play the oversold bounce in gasoline would be the UGA. It closed around 17 today, and it may move to the low 20s.

uga

The fundies on gasoline DO NOT merit a sustained rally, but the technicals indicate a potential trade. (I will take the trade on Friday morning, and will sell when 20 is seen.)

VIX and the Market

Monday, December 22nd, 2008

The VIX continues to decline as the market declines.  Usually that is an indicator of more market downside, but at the moment, I do not believe the traditional Vix/Market dynamic is in play.

I think the VIX is simply ‘repricing’ itself, to take into account the Fed/gov. action to stabalize markets. A 10yr history on the VIX would suggest a more normal range of high teens-to-mid 30s.

(I think the 10yr history is valid here as forces in information distribution and globalization play a key role in altering volatility. So a longer trend, IMO, becomes invalid without correlating for the two, which I find extremely difficult as it is nearly impossible to quantify.)

The market seems to continue its consolidation, but no real direction is visable at the moment… although GOOG is looking interesting again, but no need to rush into any positions at the moment.

Rating Agencies SUCK!

Thursday, December 18th, 2008

I really really hate the rating agencies. What is the point of their existence? Seriously.  Is it because ‘wannabe’ investors are so f-n stupid that they need to depend on others doing their homework for them? Has the last 8years not taught us to ignore their analysis? (I’m not smart enough to understand why they are needed)

Anyway… S&P stated that there is a ‘chance’ that GE could loose its AAA status. The basis of this was if GE could not execute on its GE Capital division restructing. 

This to me is so laughable. ’No Shit’… as if we needing a rating agency to tell us this one.  Yet again, when they are not being bought off by companies, they simply point out the obvious.  But since their statements hold sway within the ‘wannabe’ investor crowd (which is a big crowd of tools), their words move markets.

Lets downgrade everything on ‘chance’… not actual events or evidence of a trend suggesting an event to take place.

A few Thoughts

Thursday, December 18th, 2008

1. The VIX is collapsing.  Good overall sign that the market maybe heading to a more relaxed state, and suggests the Fed action is working. However, it is oversold and an upward consolidation should be expected.

vix 

2. ERII is overbought and hitting resistance. Expect a consolidation soon despite uber positive sentiment.

erii

3. MA is getting overbought and approaching resistance. The 160 April Puts are looking interesting for a trade when MA reaches 161 or so.

ma

A note on Apple

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

A lot of bullshit swirling around Jobs, and pulling out of the Mac expo.  I call it bullshit because, lets face it… its ultimately irrelavent.

Apple (the company) does not equal Jobs. Jobs played a key role in creating Apple’s culture of innovation and ease of use, along with artistically functional technololgy.

Apple is not one man.  It is a company that dominates across product lines via the company culture he gave birth to.  To assume this culture will simply go away is foolish.

The business of Apple is to continuously push the test on innovation.  Create new products, then drive continuous cycle improvements from these innovative product lines.  Also, to maintain a brand/product loyalty, along with a nice cash flow, they maintain a product dependent ecosystem.

Apple’s strategy was/is brilliant, and is structured for continuity.  The best example I can think of is Wal-Mart, and the culture Sam Walton created still being pushed to this day.

Apple has about $30/share in cash… cash.  A disgustingly awesome cash-flow. And if 2009 eps of 6 is assumed via an $89 stock price, it has a PE of 14. A PE of 14 for the… THE… most innovative company on the planet, and certainly for the past 8 years.

Considering I am a realist, I understand the stock will move based on one man, but to ignore his legacy, his child’s ability to flurish on its own, is simply stupid.

Every analyst that downgraded the stock this past week, downgraded on the premise of Jobs’ health, not on the fundamentals of the company.

How low can AAPL go? The charts suggest we are at a support, but with a new ‘precieved’ negative catalyst, 55-60 may be possible.

aapl

For the record, if 55-60 is seen, the market will be treating AAPL with gross inefficiency.  Apple as it stands, is a very very inexpensive stock.

Good Day

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

Today was a good day. With today’s move some profits had to be taken. PG hit its target price, so I unloaded the call options, but still hold the common.

pg

Will probably not let the common go, but will sell 65 or 67.5 Jan Calls when PG gets too overbought. At the moment it appears it can break the current SMA resistance, as it has eased from its oversold condition, but not over bought yet.

GOOG is pretty overbought, so I eased up here aswell. Will quickly re-enter upon a consolidation.

goog

Overall the market still looks good, and seems the SP500 still wants to hit the 62 SMA.

Note: I can not figure out why WordPress will not let comments to appear. Its annoying. But if anyone wants to comment on a post my email is echo[at]echotoall.com (where [at]=@)