Archive for January, 2009

To Wall Street…

Thursday, January 29th, 2009

if u don’t like fowl language… stop reading. 

For allowing this to happen… (article)… With Wall Street’s worst performance in history, the bonuses were the 6th largest in history… (While my money is being used to fund it.)

Fuck you.

Washington… I didn’t forget about you… a big UP YOURS to you too for allowing it to happen.

I facilitate in making a +$2Billion a year biologic. I do not make a % of the sales of this biologic. So why should I even have the patience for a banker’s argument concerning their pay structure.

I’m sorry, but firms should not give out the 6th largest bonus payout when there are no investment bank sector left, and the absolute worst performance in banking history. PUTTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IN A STATE OF COLLAPSE, and the very fabric of capitalism in question.

Fuck you gents… fuck you.

(I want to see all the former banking/IB CEOs held accountable.)

Bad Bank?

Thursday, January 29th, 2009

I am having a hard time understanding how the ‘bad bank’ concept would work. The way I see the economic situation, the global economy fell off a cliff in Sept 2008. The actual US slowdown started about a year earlier, but as the stock market indicated, with its slow decent since Oct 2007, there was a prolonged weakness within the US economy not very noticiable. All the while the residencial housing market was (and is) in a depression. Then LEH was allowed to go bust, and the system collapsed.

So what do we got now…

Bad assets on the banks forcing an increase in capital reserves. So lets create a ‘bad bank’. But what is considered bad? (MBS’, Credit Card debt, commercial real-estate backed securities… what is considered bad?)

This bad situation started with residential housing MBS’ and over leveraging of these assets, now everything is considered bad?

Nothing defines ‘bad’.

I do not want to forget that bad management, via horrible overleveraging and now normal increased deliquencies via recession economics are at fault here. Ultimately bad management put the banking system in this mess, and in capitalism the bad usually get crushed. SO THIS BETTER NOT BE ANY DIFFERENT!

If any current bank participates in this ‘bad bank’ rescue, their common stock should be punished with respect to the asset amount the current bank is taking off their balance sheet.

Capitalism, and more importantly, the act of punishing the idiots, must be maintained. Period.

Please use caution

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

Do not throw caution to the wind.  Cramer, and pundits, are touting the tech rally, but these names… AAPL (+20% in 6 days), GOOG (+22% in 6 days), RIMM (47% since Jan 1st) … etc have had monster moves. They will… will… consolidate.

Many of the names got beat up, and were trading at levels they should not have. But do not expect growth level PEs in this economic environment.

RIMM should not be trading with a +20 PE when the millions of job losses directly effect their subscription growth.  Lets keep a perspective, and not loose sight of reality.

We may keep rallying due to the stimulus package and ‘bad bank’ concept, but becareful not to get too bullish and keep some powder dry for when pundits are touting nothing but negatives… again. 

 

Trade – GOOG

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

Added to the GOOG short, and repositioned the puts options from 330 to 350 March puts.

GOOG is overbought.

goog

Expecting a 15-30 point pullback from the low 340s.

Market Thought – charts

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

My current ambiguity to the direction of the market comes from the following charts: (excluding individual stock charts that I have a hard time getting bullish about)
The SP500, after its consistent downward push from the begining of the year, we saw a very weak push (more of a riding of the 800-820 support line) as the oversold condition went away.

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IMO, this is negative, especially when the move takes place in the confines of a negative DMI. On the other hand, there is the VIX and the FXY (yen) that indicate market strength.

VIX:

3

The Vix broke from its support and a move to the 36 level. This would suggest the market rises.

Over the past few months, the Yen strength pretty much went hand-in-hand with the market decline. Now the yen (via the FXY) looks to be topping out.

2

The context of this chart is still positive, but signs of stress appear.

Thanks to the ‘bad bank’ concept to purchase bad bank assets, the futures are looking up. So it would appear the biasness is too the positive side. With the move, the market runs the risk of becoming intermediately overbought within a negative set up, which may suggest the SP500 retest the high 700s.  But more certaintly will be had over the next few days, and the question becomes… will the market have strength to break from the 62SMA?

Doug Kass

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

The man is a good trader, but day-by-day, with articles like these ‘Is this the end of Buffett?’, Kass is losing my respect.

The article serves no purpose other then to remind people that he shorted Berkshire at 140k.  Well I shorted Oil around 140, and called the top, shorted the market over a year ago…etc… but hell, I don’t toot my horn every other day.

For any investor to question Buffett is like an ‘ant’ taking on a ‘lion’. 

His style of investing made him the richest person in the world, dwarfing Kass’ wealth. And yet he stands there proud of his most recent calls on Buffett.  Makes no sense to me.

I am a trader, profited during this time period, but there is no way in hell would I can question an investor’s method of investing as it produced enormous fortune for so many. (maybe i am just too respectful) 

And what really bothers me the most, I am sure with all of Kass’ success at the moment, his net wealth comes no where near Buffett with the strategy Kass employs.

Take your moments of victory (K)ass… but Buffett’s style has a long way before getting dethroned. (And this coming from a trader who pays attention to an entire history, not only the recent 4 months of history.) 

Market Thought… mixed signals

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

I am still seeing too many mixed signals. A bullish case can be made, but so can a bearish one.  Ultimately I would rather err on the side of caution.

The markets are not oversold, and came off of their oversold positions weak.  Individual stocks became (and are becoming) overbought within a intermediate aura of weakness and negativity. (Not good.)

Economically, very little has improved, other then a housing number from an agency (NRA) plagued with producing bullshit numbers for the last 8 years, with more revisions then I would care to remember.

I am not sure what direction the market will go, and when there is no sense of direction take on protection :)

Trade – GOOG

Sunday, January 25th, 2009

GOOG reported a solid earnings report this go around. With its report GOOG moved to its 85SMA, and is approaching an overbought position (but not overbought yet)

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A push back from this SMA should take place. And if the atmosphere of the negative Ad market holds up, GOOG should be trading on the assumption of a zero earnings growth rate. At the moment, analyst consensus estimates are projecting about a 10% increase from 2008 to 2009.

I do not know if this will hold up, especially when I have seen reports suggesting the coldest part of traditional media ad hit will take place this spring. Putting to question the 5.03 march 09 estimates, especially considering the slowness of their ad network. (Just want to make sure expectations do not get ahead of anyone. In 3 days, GOOG moved from 285 to as high as 332, which is a 16.5% move.)

Ultimately I am a GOOG bull. But I am just trying to keep a conservative perspective. On a GAAP basis GOOG now has a trailing PE of 24 (324/13.46). That is too high for these economic times. (Although on a non-GAAP the eps is around 19-20, but should be expecting zero growth.) In other words, imo, if GOOG moves past 330 when the March 09 quarter is produced, and the 5.03 number is not produced, expect a sell off.

At the moment I entered puts on GOOG, for expectations of a push back from its 85SMA. I will mostlikely add to the short if an upward move continues and as GOOG becomes very overbought.

To the SEC:

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

Instead of investigation a man like Steve Jobs, who created massive wealth over the last 10 years, for fiduciary irregularities, why not investigate John Thain (whos final deeds as CEO of Merrill greatly contributed to the current set of market fear, and was grossly not aligned with shareholder interest.)

disgusting.

Market Thought… crappy

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

I see very little to like right now.  The oversold condition somewhat consolidated, and yet we find ourself in the low 800s for the SP500.  I see multiple charts with the same charactoristic… NOT what I want to see. Indicates weakness, and the desire for a capitulation.

Of these charts, stocks I own are indicating a ‘depressed consolidation’ (as I like to call it). With that I took on individual protection for JPM, T, PG, GE via April and June Put options.  All these names still have the dividend, but I am protecting my portfolio gains (aswell as capping my upside excluding the dividends from the names.)

I did not protect against BNI, however. It is at a support, in the low 60s, and a massive known buyer in the wings (via Buffett) and trading at recession level PEs.

Also have plenty of cash on hand to keep trading, when the trades come.

For the banks, my blackholes, I will keep the protection. I will remove GE’s protection when it either announces a dividend cut or the AAA rating is removed. I hate the fact that I protected my JPM position because I am such a fan of Dimon, but I will remove it when I get the sense things have changed or there is too much of a decline in the stock.  The rest I will wait until the charts tell me to remove the protection.