Archive for the ‘stocks’ Category

Market Thought… hello goodbye

Sunday, May 17th, 2009

My charts say buy, but my gut says no no no. (i write this w/the song in my head :) )

Not much has changed since my last ‘Market Thought’ post, except Friday’s action consolidated the market more, and the Retail index (RTH) is now oversold and sitting on support.

All in all, there maybe a possability that the SP500 can move to actually touch the 200SMA. However, the underlining weakness remains with the high momentum being broken.

Adding to my gut telling me ‘no’, is the price of oil. I am just not a fan at the moment. I am expecting it to retest the high 40s, and IMO, as goes oil… so goes the market.

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My caution is also coming from the longterm SP500 chart, which suggests the market will test its 62SMA.

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Is it realistic? I do not know. I do know, despite the potential for the market to go lower, when individual stocks I am interested in go to attactive levels I am not hesitating (but keeping a market short).

For instance…

PWR – I have been waiting for another entry point here, and it is just about here. Observing the pattern via the Slow Stoch, when the red line gets below 20 the stock typically pops. (Good for a nice trade or a long-term entry point, as I think the fundies to their biz is really good.)
pwr

Trades… GS, F, GOOG

Thursday, May 14th, 2009

1. The GS calls do not act as a proper hegde, hence closed out the option position. (Miscalculation on my part… either I had to add more puts or get rid of the calls, so I got rid of the calls.)

2. Took my profits with F. Could be a good long-term story here, but I was playing it for a trade and got my quick 12%. Can’t complain. But I will be watching it to trade it again. (As for the long-term thesis, the play is not for the health of the auto industry. It is a play to get F back to profitability, and a healthier company. Which is a very real reason a stock can go much higher, especially one whose company recorded $127B in revenue.)

3. GOOG - I shorted GOOG due to its technicals in the AM. It broke its high momentum support, and may break down to its next technical support at 380. (will cover at 380)

goog

If the SP500 see the low/mid 800s GOOG will retest the 360-370 range.

Individual Stocks vs Market

Wednesday, May 13th, 2009

Individual stocks that I follow are at strong support levels. Instead of buying more of them, it forced me to cover some of my market protection.

ie… BNI, FCX, F… etc… although I am looking to buy FCX. 

Also, F looks interesting here for a trade. But if it breaks 4.65 I would stop out of it. (They priced the offering right at its 28SMA… as if catering specifically to traders.)

GS… oh me…

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009

Earlier I entered a light position in GS calls as a partial hedge to my fairly large SPY short. The reason is because I think GS will mover up harder and faster then the market (if the market rises), and a weaker down move w/respect to the market (if the market does go down).

Doing my evening reads (yes I read at night too :) ) I see Cramer did a segment on GS. This is one of the few time I completely agree with Cramer, and the chartist’s view as well. Actually, GS is also one of my indicators to be expecting a market consolidation (there goes one of my secrets… another reason why I use it as a hedge).

The weekly says it all, with respect to resistance:

wk

Its overbought and hitting 140 resistance. I do not think it is as strong as a resistance than the 160 level via the 200SMA. The wkly 200SMA also corresponds with the 500SMA which is a clear long-term support level for GS… hence no a major resistance marker.

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Because I agree w/Cramer on all his fundamental points regarding GS (as per his video), GS will not see a massive breakdown.

If the market keeps going down, dragging GS with it, GS should consolidate to around the 120-125 level as it gets oversold. (and where I will triple up)

Trade – FCX

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009

Covered the FCX short, and purchased an new initial position in the common.  There are multiple support levels here. Looking to add if 47 is seen, and will add again at 43 (if it is achieved… but I doubt it as FCX stated today that they are starting to see a draw from the inventories at LME warehouses.)

A few Trades… GS, BNI

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009

1. Closed out the calls on my BNI position. It has consolidated enough on the individual level. If further down side is seen it is due to the market, and I am more than fully protected on market down side.

2. Took on a light position in GS via 130 July Calls. (more so to hedge my overweight market short position at the moment, but planned on going long these calls at 125-130. Will add if GS sees 130.)

Not closing out my shorts yet, but slowly adding names due to their somewhat consolidation. (Even though I think stocks will go down some more, this is a probabilities games, and the probability individual names rise increase as they get more consolidated in the current psychi of the market.)

Dollar Declining

Monday, May 11th, 2009

The dollar is officially weak again. The upward trends have broken.

dollar

Although the dollar is oversold (w/respect to the basket), and a consolidation upward is most likely in the cards, the chart signals the multi-national plays again… ei… PG, GOOG, MA… etc. (Dollar declines, their international earnings rise)

At the moment, I like PG the best… its part of my core position, not as expensive and pays a dividend it can easily afford to increase (which it just did by 10%).

Trades – NVDA

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Purchased NVDA in my very protected account.  It has become oversold recently, and IMO it is the best positioned via the graphic chip makers as more and more computer are using more graphic chips. (search NVDA in the blog’s search box as my thesis has not changed)

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Hmmm… BAC

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

I simply find it funny.  I find it funny when a company is told it will need approximately 1/2 its market capitalization in funding, yet rises (fairly massively) on the day.

BAC at the time of the $34B leak had a market cap of about 75B, yet it kept rising through out the day.

That to me is amazing.

More particularly at the fundamental (aka earnings) level.  At the moment consensus is that BAC will earn in eps 1.28 for 2010. With a stock at 12 its PE is roughly 9-10. IMO, deserves the lower premium from its peers because its a crappier company. (JPM and WFC have 2010 PEs that are around 14.) But, what is going to happen when the added equity comes into play? DILUTION.

Obtaining half of its market cap in new equity will most definately affect its EPS, yet the stock rallies on the news. (here I will argue in favor of stock price manipulation)

If JPM is the gold standard to value banks, via future PEs, we must take a discounted look at BAC’s diluted earnings power.  If BAC is going to be diluted by 30-40%, its 2010 estimated PE will be below 1.00. Which would put a future PE of 10 with a stock price of 10.  Unless the consumer headwinds simply disappear with all this ‘amazing’positive sentiment, I am scratching my head trying to find a fundamental reason as to why it was so strong today.

PS… not short any banks at the moment… but am waiting to short the hell out of GS at 160, if it should make its way there.

sanity check… FCX

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

FCX has moved 30% in 5 days… thats 30% in 5 days… that is 6% a day.

The price of copper has moved about 8% in that 5 day period. 

I never knew FCX has the earnings power to amplify copper’s price by over 3x.  Fucking amazing. (all this with a huge build in copper inventories… but its moves are reflecting a  world running through the stuff like it was 2003.)

The moves in FCX are currently unsustainable. Becareful. (and yes, I am still short as my money is usually where my mouth is.)