The only fustration I have getting my orders filled are the brokers going too slow for me. There appears to be technical difficulties with the online brokers.
But I started buying… annoyed in that I do not know if my JPM order got filled, and I am watching it rocket!
I started to add common on MA (initial position at the 150 level). I placed limit orders for PBR around 25, and JPM around 36. And I have plenty of GE (waiting for after earnings to add)
Too inexpensive to ignore. The market is now at a severe discount due to the troubles in the credit market. Stocks have value, the market players are ignoring this value.
Playing common because I do not want to deal with time decay, as I do not know when the credit markets will start to act normal (which will have an immediate effect on stock prices, pushing them upward).
PS… with the Fed Commercial Loan help, there should now be no question to GE’s insolvency… there is no threat now.
Entered positions in:
GE (Will add even more if 20 is broken downward. This recent capital requirement was not needed, they did it to satisfy the market.)
PBR (Peak oil is real, and prices will stay high until alternatives slow the use of crude. Will add more around 37.)
PWR (Did anyone even bother to see the PTC was passed yesterday, and the alternative space has one common theme… upgraded Power Grid. But multiple compression is a bitch to deal with. Will add more if below 20 is observed.)
Still waiting for downgrades on MA, also BNI. Valuations look good, but downgrades should be coming as the global economy has slowed. (IMO, these downgrades will be lagging.)
I am getting that nervous feeling again. If something materializes by Monday, good, we avert a sudden market drop. But we will not avert a declining market.
Use market strength today to protect. I am shorting the SPY via March 09 Puts.
The $700B credit bailout will most likely pass soon (imo by Friday night), and that will have obvious positive consequences for financials. There should be a market pop on the approval of the bill, and I am playing the pop via GE (primarily) and JPM.
GE’s chart is simply horrible.
The downward spiral is simply impressive in that the markets allowed such a prized company get so inexpensive. It is currently yielding +5%, and if it goes toward 22 or lower I will go heavy for the ‘bailout pop’. GE is also the most sensitive to the economy, as so much of it is infrastructure related, but its one of those companies that should not be in the teens… and if it ever gets there I will go really heavy in the common.
JPM… the chart is interesting here, with the SMA’s pointing higher. With a ‘bailout pop’, JPM should see 46 again.
I have a small option position in JPM to have potential upside exposure, but will unload on the pop.
The economy is still very weak, as such my current positions are small. Until I see the formings of some capitulation, or values just get too juicy to ignore, I will hesitate to go heavy.
I started getting in to GE here for two reasons:
1. the indicated dividend is over 5%
2. a play on the bailout market pop we will see
I allocated a bunch of capital to start playing the market, and I am starting to use it. I still think the markets go down, but the bailout (no matter how much it upsets me) will happen. I want to capture some of the upside when it does.
Not going too heavy into options just yet, as I still do not like what I see on the tape, but I am waiting for attractive entry points to which I will no hesitate to enter.
If the SEC bans short-selling I will question our ‘free market’ thesis. And will worry about the very fabric of American culture going down the drain.
Reinstate the shorting rules, add regulation, but DO NOT ban a free market transaction! Banning something is bullshit, and pretty much proves markets are constently manipulated.
Today is an artificial up day… I made good money… really I did, but unfortunately the markets will head back down as REAL FUNDAMENTALS SUCK! This took away from the real capitulation day we were suppose to have very soon… this just prolongs it, yet again!
I have already sold the options that I purchased in the afternoon because of this. Today is a sadder day then watching Lehman go under. Today we are wittnessing the deterioration of free markets, and subequently America.
IMO, we are very close to an interm bottom here. Negatives are clearly present, but stock valuations are getting too interesting to pass up. I doubt any reasonable long-term manager will let certain price points pass up, and are accumulating here.
I unloaded a lot of my market short, and entered some options via stocks from the post below… initial positions. Complete capitulation did not occur yet, hence kept some market short protection, which I will remove when I see it.
I also placed a bunch of limit orders, in hopes to get the capitulation prices.
Be ready.
I indicated in my previous ‘Interesting Development’ post JPM would make for an interesting entry point at 36. It happened, and it may move to 46 with this short-term positive sentiment. (I would consider 46 a selling point, but if holding for the long-term there is no reason to sell JPM.)
I unloaded it all, except for the market short. The markets have not seen its capitulation yet, as such has not bottomed. I believe this capitulation will take place by the next few months. So I am maintaining a short, and will add as the market gets overbought.
I did keep a few hundred shares of ERII… simply because I told friends it is probably the best water play on the market, and it will be a great long-term stock. Because of this I felt too guilty to sell it all, so I will continue to ride it with them. Despite it being a one product company at the moment (and that product is a great one), I truly believe their management is great, and will make this company a interesting one. Subsequently, adding serious value to its stock. (But the trader in me does not like to hope for the best, and that is basically what you do when holding a stock for the long-term… its an internal struggle I constantly deal with when investing.)
I will be posting the list of stocks I will closely follow, and plan on getting really long when things begin to turn. (And just an early heads up on POT today… they announced a serious buy back. On a pull back, I will probably trade it.)
