play casino…

http://echotoall.blogspot.com/

(I will be posting at the above link. (In the mean time I will try to import 3yrs worth of info, and the domain to the blogspot service… i’m just being carefull with it as I do not want to lose 3yrs worth of info.)

bad news… as of yesterday (prior to yahoo fixing the comment issue) the blog is not letting me post. I do not know why, but am trying to figure it out.

i deleted the most recent GS post as that was the last post I posted, thinking it may have corrupted the system… did not work

As for the post… I am not trying to defend, just trying to add prespective. Ultimately we want an answer to the true question… where do stocks need to adjust to?

The only way to do that is to use conservative valuations, despite the trend.

When that bottom comes it is going to bounce fast and ferocious, why not be prepared?

As far as trends, biz… u know i hate following trends . but seriously, the most money to be made is during the break of major trends. (Happened with the oil trade when fundies were not living up to an oil price of 135-147.) And the only way to know when trends are about to break is to test the fundamentals with respect to current action. If they don’t make sense, the trend will break sooner-than-later. I just don’t know when, but i do know down side here is limited due to the uber conservative valuations… with the exception of the financials.

We are sliding down a steep icey mountain, why not just follow the trend and hit bottom then climb the next mountain? The rules for trend is not for us to bend. The trend is down…until its broken, just follow it. no?

If you just can’t stand to go short, then avg. down 5 shares a day(if fees aren’t too high). Or 10% of your total shares each time the market hits new bottom.

Also, thanks for your earlier response on erii

Dan

imo, the rules never change. the basic rules always apply. investors get in trouble when they ‘think’ they change. I take more of a scientific approach to it. In science there are basic fundamental rules that simply can not be argued (ie rules of thumbs). And over the course of the Market’s existance, a set of rules have emerged for the market.

when speculators take hold these rules start to deviate and that is where investors can take advantage. ie, oil climbed to 147 with bad economic data from the US, and reports of numerous factories in china closing every day, and yet oil kept rising. Speculators were ignoring the basic rules, so I put a oil short on.

Housing, the same. And I completely agree with you there.

IMO, the same thing is happening in the equities market, but in reverse with fear at historic unseen levels. Basic rule of valuations still apply, and this can not be ignored.

IMO, the derivative products are a beautiful thing, when used properly. (i stress ‘properly used’) there are awesome uses to these things. Unfortunately, they were not used properly because of ‘wannabe masters of the universe types’ wanting to be kings. I want innovation, and want to see these type of instruments created and used, but their must be regulation (via practial use of these instruments) from the get go. People go as far as the rules let them go, and in this case the SEC and Congress failed us, along with the push to ‘not’ have these markets regulated. But we live and learn.